Another Detroit Lions season is upon us. In just two days, the Lions will take the field in Kansas City for the season opener against the defending champion Chiefs, kicking off what seems poised to be the most hyped Lions season in decades. I debated several different ways to do my Lions season preview but ultimately settled on a 10 questions, 10 answers sort of format where I can address all the burning questions on everyone’s mind. Today we’ll be going through the whole roster, the schedule, and taking a stab at the BIG picture.
1.) How confident should we be in the re-modeled secondary?
The Lions’ pass defense needed to get a lot better in the offseason and Brad Holmes knew it. The unit improved some in the back-half of the 2022 season but it still wasn’t great and the overall team numbers for the full season were very poor. The Lions allowed the third-most passing yards in the NFL last season, best exemplified by when they allowed Geno Smith to go 23/30 for 320 yards and 2 TD, 0 INT in Week 4. That just can’t happen, and the list of cornerbacks the Lions deployed for more than 100 snaps last season says a lot: Jeff Okudah, Will Harris, Mike Hughes, Jerry Jacobs, Amani Oruwariye, AJ Parker. Of those six, just Harris and Jacobs return and only Jacobs is in line for a substantial role this season. That was a correct call. Safety was less dire, but DeShon Elliott has also departed.
Brad Holmes opted to blow up his DBs room and in its place, rebuild with free agents and draft picks. At corner they signed Cam Sutton from Pittsburgh and Emmanuel Moseley from San Francisco, the latter of whom will likely not be quite ready to start the season due to the ACL tear suffered in October 2022. At safety they signed CJ Gardner-Johnson from Philadelphia and at the NFL Draft the Lions added Brian Branch, a versatile safety/nickel type. Oh and Tracy Walker is back from injury, giving the Lions another option at safety.
The result of all these changes is a DBs room that is definitely better than a year ago. Sutton has distinguished himself as a solid cornerback, not elite but a competent option. Moseley, if he can get back up to 100%, should be the same. Considering that they’re taking over for 793 Jeff Okudah snaps, a player who started strong but was virtually unplayable by December, and 477 Amani Oruwariye snaps, PFF’s worst-graded regular cornerback in the entire NFL last season by a wide margin, it shouldn’t be too hard to represent a massive upgrade.
I’m not sure exactly what to expect from Branch given the gargantuan praise he’s been receiving in training camp, but can he represent an upgrade on 563 Mike Hughes snaps from last season? I would think so. Gardner-Johnson is probably an upgrade on Elliott, though that may be closer, a healthy Tracy Walker beefs up the depth, and I think it’s reasonable to expect Kerby Joseph to take another step forward.
So yeah, the secondary will be improved. Probably dramatically (in fairness, a low bar). But are we confident in it? I am seldom confident of anything involving the Detroit Lions so maybe we should re-phrase that. I think the probability of the secondary being decent is quite high (hence the dramatic upgrade from “apocalyptic”). But the probability of it being “good”? Or “great”? Yeah, I’m not sure I’m there yet.
I worry about the depth at corner, especially if Sutton were to go down. I like the personality and story of Jerry Jacobs as much as the next person but he still needs to prove he’s a legit starting corner in this league. I also want to believe in the Branch hype but he’s a rookie who’s never played in the NFL and I don’t want to be burned by preseason hype. And of course, even if everyone hits their projection, the Lions still lack the sort of bona fide #1 corner that is very useful in this modern pass-happy NFL. I think it’s possible to believe that the secondary is the most improved positional group on the team and yet that it still has major questions to answer, thus leaving you a stone’s throw away from true confidence.
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2.) Are the young linebackers ready for primetime?
The (inside) linebacker position has been a bit of a weak spot for the Detroit Lions for quite a while at this point. The last high level player at the position was DeAndre Levy nearly 10 years ago now and the best we’ve gotten since then are players who can best be described as “serviceable”, your Tahir Whitehead types. A lot of the time the play of the linebackers has been well below serviceability, with the infamous first round pick of Jarrad Davis looming large as a particular black mark of the Bob Quinn Era.
It’s been long past time for the Lions to have a strong LB group and even though the prominence of ILBs has faded in the pass-first NFL, you cannot convince me that they aren’t important. They may not be as important as QB or linemen, but linebacker play is still a massive cog in a defense. Watching the 2022 Detroit Lions was evidence of that. Having linebackers who can identify gaps and make the tackles in run defense AND capably cover RBs out of the backfields/run with TEs is a huge weapon to have.
Which is why I was fine with the decision to draft Jack Campbell in the first round of the NFL Draft back in April. He was not at the top of my list going into the draft but I think Campbell can be a special player in that mold. First of all, he’s an Iowa linebacker… he knows how to read plays and show up in the right gaps in his sleep. But what makes Campbell so intriguing is his athletic testing numbers, which are decidedly not Iowa linebacker-like. By the athletic composite model RAS, he ranked as the 6th most athletic LB to go through the NFL Combine since 1987, a sample of 2,652 players(!!). He’s a big kid at 6’5”, 243, yet has the athleticism of a modern LBer.
I may hold on to an old-school admiration for ILB play but I certainly am not living in the mindset that LBs need to wear a neck roll and run like they’re wearing combat boots. There’s as much (if not more) value in an LB being able to cover as there is in an LB being able to defend the run nowadays. The cerebral component and surefire tackling of Campbell’s game portends competency in the latter, while his athleticism scores indicate the former. If an Iowa LB ever shows up in the NFL Draft with historically great athleticism scores, drafting him is never a bad idea. After Campbell’s incredibly strong preseason, I am beginning to buy lots of stock in him.
But Campbell is still a rookie and LB is an intellectual position that sometimes takes a bit to master; it’s possible that he isn’t quite ready for liftoff in year #1. That’s why we have to broaden this question and ask about the entire room because it will also be a test of the athletic projects the Lions have taken fliers on in the NFL Draft under Brad Holmes. Alex Anzalone is still around, sure, but whether the LB room takes a big step forward rests on the 3/4ths of the two-deep that are young players still on rookie deals.
Derrick Barnes is now entering year #3 and Malcolm Rodriguez is starting his second campaign. Barnes was a bit raw when the Lions nabbed him in the fourth round out of Purdue. He just completed a resurgent training camp, but is he ready to translate that in the regular season? Rodriguez showed flashes as a rookie last fall after a charming appearance on Hard Knocks, becoming a fan favorite, but showed he was still a rookie LB with a lot to learn. His training camp has been quieter but should still play a factor. At the end of the day, the Lions’ linebackers are going to be improved. These younger LBs are going to take a step forward and the addition of Campbell only makes them deeper. The question is whether they’re ready to take the mantle from Anzalone and assert themselves as actual difference makers. I don’t know the answer to this one but I am feeling optimistic due to my belief in Campbell.
3.) Should we be worried about the WR room?
Short answer: I clock in at a 5 on the worry-o-meter. I am not panicked. I am not feeling great. Look, Amon-Ra St. Brown is a star. I think he gets consistently underrated because he’s not a big, flashy jump ball artisan, but he belongs in a conversation among the NFL’s elite receivers. He is the engine of Detroit’s passing attack and racked up 762 yards in the last nine games for the Lions last season. If healthy, I’m expecting him to shoot past the 1,161 yards he had last season.
The problem is everyone besides St. Brown and particularly what could happen if St. Brown ever misses time, a contingency you have to plan for because it’s football. I don’t mind Kalif Raymond and Josh Reynolds, but they’re not difference makers. Neither is a 33-year-old Marvin Jones. The Lions never got the full experience of DJ Chark last season due to injury, but the passing attack was better when Chark was healthy and until the Jameson Williams situation is resolved, the team is missing an outside element.
My general view on the endless Jamo discourse is that I don’t blame him harshly for the suspension, since it appears that the NFL did not properly explain the rules surrounding gambling based on the number of players being suspended and confused at why they were suspended. Unfortunate that he happened to be caught up in this racket. But it is unfortunate, doubly so about his hamstring injuries in training camp. The conversation in the Detroit media market surrounding Williams and his perceived lack of character is some of the slimiest and most morally reprehensible coverage I’ve seen in some time, especially since its subject is a 22-year-old just trying to break into the league.
The reason to worry about the draft pick is not whether Williams is a good person or is immature. I’ve seen zero evidence to suggest either of those things and spending time debating it is indulging the worst people in sports media. Rather, the legitimate reason to worry is because of his health. Whenever you draft a player who is slated to miss significant time with injury, it heightens the stakes of future injury. What Williams needed more than anything else was reps, time running routes with his teammates and getting snaps in game action. With the suspension, the pre-season games were going to be paramount for him, which is why the hamstring pulls were so devastating. I don’t know what to expect when Williams comes back after Week Six given how much practice time and games he’s missed, but the Lions should use him more aggressively than they did last year. If you hit on just one or two deep shots with Williams, it changes the paradigm of the offense considerably.
But that’s the state of things in the WR room and why there is reason for concern. A superstar in the slot, a bunch of guys on the outside plus one giant mystery box that can be opened mid-season. If Amon-Ra goes down at any point, you’re left with only guys. I don’t think it would be enough to submarine the passing offense singlehandedly, because I think the offense’s greatest strength compared to last year is the pass-catching abilities of the RBs and I’m high on Sam LaPorta at TE, but this position is not terribly deep and that’s a worry. WR is a long-term need for this franchise and I’d look for it to be a focus at the 2024 NFL Draft.
4.) Do the Lions have too many EDGEs?
The Lions opted to keep seven EDGE defenders on their initial 53-man roster, igniting discussion about this question, even though they later placed Julian Okwara on injured reserve (though his injury is not long-term). What was once a sore weakness on the roster is now a seeming strength, not just headline talent but a glut of quality depth. The obvious answer to this question in the thousand-foot view is no. You can never have too many EDGEs*. Asterisk denoting a “within reason” stipulation to this point. You obviously shouldn’t have 15 EDGEs, etc, but within the bounds of reason, having lots of valuable pass-rushers is an immensely useful problem to have in the modern NFL. Especially if we aren’t completely sold on a re-worked secondary where everyone is wearing name-tags.
Now I don’t know if all seven of Detroit’s EDGEs are “valuable pass-rushers”, but manipulating IR to keep Julian Okwara made sense because he’s an intriguing enough name to at least see if he could be a valuable pass-rusher. The remaining group has all shown flashes. Aidan Hutchinson is on his way to being a star in the NFL. I am not entirely sure if James Houston has anything else to his games besides elite pass-rushing, and the team seemed devoted in the preseason to rounding out his game, but if that is his only skill, boy is it a valuable skill to have in the modern NFL. When you collect eight sacks in seven games, you can play on my team every day of the week.
Charles Harris was a bit of a flash in the pan in 2021 before flopping in 2022 due to injuries and other predicaments. By all accounts he adjusted better to the responsibilities of their new SAM LB position, so if he brings versatility that’s a plus. John Cominsky is a legit NFL player and I have hopes that Josh Paschal can make a leap in his sophomore campaign. Both guys are your EDGEs who can defend the run and slide inside on passing downs. And then there’s ole Romeo Okwara, one of the last holdovers from the Quintricia era. Okwara posted 7.5 sacks in 2018 and 10.0 in 2020 but has been slowed down the last two years by an Achilles injury.
So in summary, I’m fine possibly having seven EDGEs in the mix if/when Julian Okwara gets healthy. Each guy brings a reason to believe in them and it’s not seven of the same kind of player, each boasting an array of different skills. Some are better at pinning their ears back and rushing, some are better at run defending, some that can kick inside and some that can drop into coverage. That versatility is valuable and worth the opportunity cost of keeping seven EDGEs in my view.
[Mike Mulholland/Getty Images]
5.) What impact do the new running backs have?
The Lions fielded their best rushing attack of my lifetime and proceeded to spend the offseason running both of their backs out of town. Crazy? Not really. Surprising? Yeah. When I recapped the 2022 season back in January, I advocated for an extension to Jamaal Williams and figured it would be rather easy to get done. Turns out it wasn’t, Williams seeking a larger contract than the Lions felt comfortable with and ultimately they opted to go with David Montgomery from Chicago instead. In general, if I’m going to give a three-year contract to a UFA running back, I’d rather give it to the 25-year-old than the 28-year-old, given what we know about RB aging curves. So I get where they were coming from, even if it was a huge bummer to lose Williams.
Then at the NFL Draft the Lions traded D’Andre Swift to Philly for a pick and drafted Jahmyr Gibbs from Alabama 12th overall, perhaps the most shocking selection of the first round. The decision to jettison Swift was A-OK with me and most Lions fans, but was an OUTRAGE to the sort of NFL fan who thinks being good in fantasy is the same as being good in actual football. Swift was probably useful in your PPR league but the fact of the matter is that while he was electric in a couple games each season, he never played more than 13 games in a season and roughly half of the games he played in during a given year saw him play hurt, with vastly diminished results.
Regardless of your opinion on The Great Running Back Value Debate, Gibbs seems to be an electric playmaker who will add as much value as a receiver as he will as a runner. His athletic testing scores are a dandy, as is the tape, and if Gibbs can prove to be healthier than Swift (he’s missed one game the past two seasons), I do believe he can be an upgrade.
The biggest difference with the new RB room, though, isn’t just that Montgomery is probably an upgrade on Williams and Gibbs is probably an upgrade on Swift. It’s the increased dynamic ability and versatility of this new RB room. Williams caught 12 total passes last season while Montgomery has averaged 43 over the past three seasons. Put that next to Gibbs, who caught 44 in 12 games for ‘Bama last season and suddenly you have the ability to legitimately play in two RB sets. You can play with two RBs and still go empty! You put more defenders into conflict when you add a more credible receiving dimension to the offense out of the backfield.
While I’m mildly worried about the WR room, the possibilities of this RB room + Sam LaPorta, a rookie TE who can credibly be lined up all over the field, does give me belief that this passing attack can be as dangerous as last year’s (though there are reasons to doubt it too). If you’re going to criticize the Lions for thinking it’s 1995 by taking a RB so high in the Draft, you also have to give some thought to the possibility that they may be on the cutting edge of a positionless passing game that can attack the defense from everywhere on the field (and I’m not counting TE Penei Sewell here).
6.) What is the biggest weakness on the team?
A bit of a Debbie Downer question but it’s a good way to prepare us for any pain this season. If I had to name the positional groups I’m most concerned about I’d go with defensive tackle, kicker, and then wide receiver. The latter I already covered (it’s mostly about the depth and outside presence), so I won’t rehash what’s already been stated. The other two, though, are worth elaborating on.
Defensive tackle is not in a state of disrepair, but it’s not where I’d like to see it for as important of a position as it is. I like Alim McNeil. He started to come on strong late last year and seems to have put in good work in the offseason. But he’s not a star yet and then the rest of that depth chart is really iffy. We should note that on passing downs, you’d expect to see at least one EDGE kick inside, so DT weakness is mitigated to some degree, but I’m more concerned about getting plowed in the run game, a fatal flaw if true.
McNeil can’t play every snap and none of the other players on the depth chart bring me much confidence: Isaiah Buggs, Brodric Martin, Levi Onwuzurike, Benito Jones. Two late round/UDFA types who have had a few flashes and two higher picks that include a 3rd round rookie and a chronically injured third year player. All guys who could plausibly be decent, but also very much may not be. My best hope is that a rotation of these bodies cobbles together decent production on rushing downs and they get by having McNeil take a leap and kicking Cominsky/Paschal/Hutchinson inside often enough to fill in the gaps, but I would have liked to come into the season feeling a bit more secure at this spot.
As for kicker, I ranked it behind defensive tackle because it’s not as important of a position on the team but boy do I not feel good about it!! The Lions had middling kicking last season and then didn’t do much of anything to improve it this year. They didn’t sign any big name kickers nor make any trades, deciding to come into camp with a coughing baby vs. coughing baby style competition, eventually landing on Riley Patterson, who went 2/3 on field goals and missed an extra point in his last preseason outing. It’s also not clear if Patterson will even be on the 2023 roster by mid-season as the team is still searching for better solutions (apparently Michael Badgley is back?). Has anyone asked Jason Hanson how his leg is doing at age 53?
Defensive tackle is a bigger weakness because if it turns into a black hole, it could sink the whole defense. Wide receiver is a weakness largely if injury strikes to a particular player (good thing that never happens in football!). Kicker likely won’t submarine the season but could cost the team a game along the way, though at least the Lions have never lost the NFC North because of an incompetent kicker before.
7.) Where should we set expectations for the offense and defense as units in 2023?
Let’s start on offense, which has a high bar to match after last season. The Lions finished with the 5th-best offense by DVOA, 4th in YPG overall and 5th in PPG. Their passing offense finished 8th in YPG but the offense was remarkably balanced, 11th in rushing YPG. By all available metrics, this was an above-average offense bordering on elite. It was what kept the Lions in games in 2022 despite a (for much of the year) disastrous defense.
Yeah, lofty production to match. It’s largely the same cast of characters, 4/5ths of the OL back with only one new starter (a guard position inhabited by either Graham Glasgow or Halapoulivaati Vaitai). The WRs will be mostly the same, minus the half-season they got out of DJ Chark but plus more Jameson Williams after the suspension. TEs subtract the seven TJ Hockenson games and add Sam LaPorta to the fold. Jared Goff is back at starting QB. Only the RBs turn over, in changes we already mentioned.
So considering all that, how do we feel? I said I think they upgraded at RB, while there are no obvious downgrades on the rest of the offense, but there are some reasons to be cognizant of possible regression. The Lions were remarkably turnover-free last season, a 1.2% INT% for Jared Goff standing out. They also were extremely efficient in the red zone (4th best TD%) and were very healthy at tackle (Penei Sewell and Taylor Decker both played every offensive snap), notable because the depth there is sketchy at best.
I’m going to assume some amount of Goff regression as an overarching expectation. I also think we should temper expectations some amount for LaPorta and Gibbs because the precedent for rookie TEs and receiving backs is not great, but it’s not like the Lions got a ton out of their TEs or Swift last year. As a whole, it’s a pretty similar offense, maybe Goff is a bit worse, maybe Montgomery makes them a bit better, be careful of injuries/TO/red zone luck. A safe expectation to set is to be a top 10 offense. I think expecting them to stay top 5 is a bit much, if they’re falling significantly outside the top 10, that’s a bad sign. Top 10 is reasonable.
On defense, it was the exact opposite last season. 28th in DVOA, 28th in PPG against, and dead last (32nd) in YPG against. They were poor against the run and the pass, 30th in passing YPG against and 29th in rushing YPG against. Bad! The team did improve as the year went along, as some of the younger defenders grew into their own: after allowing an astonishing 421.3 YPG in the first seven games, the Lions allowed 372.1 the rest of the way (down to 351.7 in the final six games). Similarly, PPG got cut from 29.1 down to ~20 in the back-half of the season. Turnovers forced going up was a big part of it. That late season defensive turnaround is why Football Outsiders’ weighted DVOA (which puts more value on games later in the season) named the Lions the 6th-best team in the NFL by the end of the season.
But we’re setting the expectations based on the full season of data here. The Lions have to improve over that total body of work and setting expectations is a matter of how much we expect them to improve. The defensive talent is significantly better than last year, especially the secondary (which we already discussed). LBs are better (also discussed), while defensive line improvement mostly banks on Aidan Hutchinson, Josh Paschal, Alim McNeil, and others growing into better versions of themselves (and perhaps new contributions from the likes of Levi Onwuzurike and Brodric Martin on the interior). The defense is also healthier with Tracy Walker III, Charles Harris, and Romeo Okwara back but this is football, that statement about health will only last so long.
Overall, material improvements have beefed up the DB room but hope for defensive improvement as a whole rests on that internal improvement and growth. This was a very young defense a year ago; not just do they need the young DL to be better versions of themselves, the same thing can be said about the LBs and DBs like Kerby Joseph and Jerry Jacobs. Not everyone will progress massively, or progress at all, but most should. That’s a reasonable thing to expect. It’s also now the third season in Aaron Glenn’s scheme and he has a much deeper team, with more versatile pieces to play around with. I still worry about the defense and mobile QBs, but better results are a bare minimum.
Overall, I’d like to see this defense move up into the third quartile of the league, also known as spot 17-24 in defensive metrics. Get out of the cellar, slots 25-32, and into that third bucket where you’re progressing towards the mean. It’s quite possible they improve a lot more than that, but if they don’t at least get into the third quartile, it’s a bad sign and an indictment of either talent, coaching, or both. I expect the Lions to be much better in coverage, a bit better in pass-rushing (which should be the strength of the defense), while I still have some lingering worries about the run defense. Still, they should at the very least make the jump from very bad to competent defensively.
[Nic Antaya/Getty Images]
8.) Will the Lions win the NFC North? How should we feel about the schedule?
Two part question here broadly discussing the opponents on the schedule and the division specifically. The schedule is a pretty interesting one, not a ton of super hard games but every single game against a projected top ten team is on the road. The Lions play the Chiefs, Chargers, Ravens, and Cowboys all on the road. Their next best opponent after that is probably New Orleans… also on the road. Meanwhile the home schedule (non-division) features Seattle, Atlanta, Carolina, Las Vegas, and Denver. Of those teams, only Seattle won more than seven games last year.
I don’t think that’s necessarily good or bad, just something to note. As a whole it’s not a terribly hard schedule, but that’s partially a function of the Lions being in a subpar good division. The Lions were smack dab in the middle of PFF’s strength of schedule rankings and have been in a similar spot on other peoples’ lists. The Bears and Packers have easier schedules because they finished below the Lions in last year’s standings, while the Vikings have a pretty hard schedule. No surprise there. As we noted in the 2022 season wrap-up piece in January, though, SOS expectations going into the year can be deceiving because there is so much year-to-year variation in the NFL, where bad teams get good in a hurry and vice versa. Overall, though, the Lions aren’t really getting screwed.
The Lions do start the season off with baptism by fire. The Chiefs on the road in a national TV game is just about as hard as it gets, but at least we get the most obvious “L” on the schedule out of the way early. But, it does place much increased pressure on Week 2 against Seattle, who is a decent team. That feels like a very important game, because you don’t want to start 0-2. After that, Falcons, Packers, Panthers, Bucs is a softer stretch where 3-1 is the goal. If you can start 1-1 then you’re in good shape heading to Baltimore. With the MNF game against the Raiders closing out the first half, I think the ultimate goal should be 5-3 at the bye week. 4-4 isn’t a catastrophe, but 5-3 keeps you in good shape.
The oddest quirk of the schedule is the ending, the double dip with the Vikings, two meetings in the final three weeks. In between you have a road game in Dallas, which I don’t love. Being able to scoop up wins over Minnesota could be crucial to putting the division away, and that trip to Detroit by the Broncos the week before is also a sneaky big one. There are no certain W’s in the last four weeks; the Lions will have to close strong to win the NFC North.
As for the division itself, I’m not sure the Lions will win the NFC North, but I think it’s not unreasonable to say they should (I suppose that’s the next question though). Chicago is definitely a better team after investing heavily in their defense and offensive line, but they have a long way to go. Justin Fields is one of the big keys to their season, yes, but that team we saw at the end of last year was incredibly sad. It’s not easy to make the sort of leap they need to make, though we did see Jacksonville make a similar one last year. They’ll need Fields to play like Lawrence to get there in just one season. Progressing towards the middle of the league is probably a more reasonable expectation for the Bears’ season.
Green Bay made shockingly few moves in the offseason outside of ditching that Aaron Rodgers fella. Jordan Love is now in at QB and who knows what to expect there. He looked sharp in the preseason but who cares? Let’s talk again midseason. Even if Love plays well as a QB and replicates Rodgers from last year (who was good but not incredible), the Packers were still only an 8-9 team that finished with a negative point differential. The Lions should expect to be better than that.
I may be the most down on Minnesota despite their sterling 13-4 record from last season. Their 2022 season will be talked about for decades as an example of “WTF??”, an unheard of 11-0 in one score games resulting in a 13-4 season that saw them -3 in points for the season (also negative in yardage). The thud that was their opening round playoff defeat at home against an iffy Giants team was karmic justice for that horseshoe-up-the-ass season. They were already probably a worse team than the Lions last season and that’s before they stomached some losses on an already-bad defense. Typically you see one-score game luck revert and sometimes hard. If that comes + the team overall is worse, there’s a possible big drop coming here. Not saying it’s definite but at the very least, regressing down to the 8 win range seems reasonable.
So in total, it feels like if the Lions get to 10 wins they’re in good decent to win this division and it’s hard to imagine that 11 doesn’t get it done. In which case…
9.) What does a successful 2023 Detroit Lions season constitute?
To me, a fully successful Lions season in 2023 involves the Lions winning the NFC North and winning a home playoff game. As we just spelled out, there is no obvious excuse as to why the Lions shouldn’t win the North. They had the best point differential in the division last year and upgraded the roster more than either Minnesota or Green Bay. Chicago upgraded significantly, but are starting from far behind. This is a division widely seen as one of the worst in the NFL and you have a team coming off a 9-8 season. Winning the division is the expectation, unless somehow one of the rivals morphs into a juggernaut (hard to see happening, but you never know in this league). Anything else is disappointing.
And building off of that, when you win the division, you get a home playoff game. Given the general caliber of wild card teams, you should expect to win that playoff game. If the Lions are the 4 seed and draw Dallas or Philadelphia #5, then it’s perhaps more of a tossup, but look at the teams that were 6 and 7 last year. Are they good at all? I would say no! The Lions beat the Giants in New York and would’ve beaten Seattle early in the year if they had anything other than arguably the worst defense in NFL history at the time. Getting a 3 seed means finishing with a better record than the NFC South winner. Pretty doable. Even if you are the 4 and draw Dallas, when you’re at home in front of what should be a very hostile crowd, you should aim to win and it’s not unreasonable to expect that.
Anything beyond that, though, is a stretch. Progressing further (likely) requires beating one of Philadelphia or San Francisco on the road and I don’t think the Lions have a roster that is there yet. I know some would say that this expectation is too lofty given [entire history of Detroit Lions in the Super Bowl era] but either you can believe in permanent curses or you can live in a reasonable world where young teams are expected to progress.
After showing lots of promise in the back half of last season, winning the division and winning the home playoff game that it gifts you is that next step. Jacksonville took it last season and it’s not like they’re known for profound playoff success. It’s time for the Lions to do so if this regime is serious about accomplishing anything of note. Yes, these are lofty expectations given history but expectations are the price you pay when you finish a season 8-2 in the last 10 games. In other words, I feel wind underneath my freaking wings.
10.) Is the slasher about to jump out of the darkness and hack us to death with a chainsaw?
Which leads us to our final question, the one that probably came to your mind if you’re a Lions fan of any age and were reading about me proclaiming the consensus expectation as winning the division, something that hasn’t happened in 30 years. It’s been a largely surreal offseason in Lions-land, where suddenly this sad, cursed franchise is now not just a favorite to win a division but a darling of the league nationally. The Lions are getting headlines proclaiming their nature as a team on the rise and have been booked in the national TV season opening game, one that will put them on display matched up against the NFL’s current reigning dynasty.
It is understandable how and why we got here. The Lions have a young team with an entertaining coach, made an immensely watchable appearance on Hard Knocks, and then closed last season playing like a legit playoff team. Oh and they host NFL Draft in April 2024. Why not put this team on a pedestal?
The logic might be there but still, something feels deeply wrong. This is a level of enthusiasm and hype unmatched in my lifetime (maaaaybe 2011-12 era but still not quite) and frankly, not since the early 90s when the media was deciding whether the Lions or Cowboys would be the team of the decade (spoiler: it wasn’t the Lions). The Lions have a rightful place in the NFL ecosystem, a bottom feeder who grabs attention only when A) it’s time to expose a flaw in the NFL rulebook no one had ever come across before and b) it’s Thanksgiving and all of America asks “do we have to watch the Lions again this year?”
There is a natural order of things and the tandem of a smart young GM and a coach who is spiritually and physically The Dude Lebowski have thrown everything into disarray. The Detroit Lions should not be getting this much attention; the Detroit Lions are supposed to be like vampires, running away from the light. For those of us who have been on this haunted house ride longer than the last three years, the mixing of the Black Pit Of Negative Expectations and the justified optimism of the offseason have rendered us in a very odd position, like something very bad is sure to happen next that washes away all of this. Someone I know who has been belted on to this ride for 58 years has told me all offseason “I’m just waiting for Jared Goff to tear his ACL Week 1”.
Our whole lives as Lions fans has told us something very bad has to be coming next, like we are the titular character in this section’s question, creeping through the dark house just before the serial killer gets us. We don’t exactly know how to deal with ourselves, so if I have to give advice on how to deal with this predicament, I’d just say to embrace it. Don’t be so jaded as to never buy in, so you get the opportunity to enjoy it on the off chance that pigs do fly, but don’t be so believing that your heart is ripped out even though you booked a dinner reservation with Mola Ram. This season will probably end in doom, because that’s the business we’ve chosen cheering for this terrible, cursed team. But I’d like to put stock in reasonable expectations and believe that it won’t. Believing is fun. 11-6, NFC North Champions.