2021-22 Metropolitan Division Preview
One very good team, one very bad team, and a lot in between
We’re back here for Part 2 of my 2021-22 NHL Preview. You can read part one here, but for those who did not read it, we’re going down each division in order of how I project each team to finish, starting from the top and going down. For each team, I give some general thoughts, pick an X-Factor, and then make a prediction on the season, which will of course be clairvoyant.
1. New York Islanders
General Thoughts: R-E-S-P-E-C-T has finally come to Long Island. After years of being subject to #disrespekt by national writers and Analytics Bros, whose models hated the Isles, the consensus has finally come around to NYI being the Metro’s best team and I agree. They have a formula, execute it very well, and it’s basically the exact same team that was a game away from the Stanley Cup Finals in June except swapping Zach Parise for Jordan Eberle and Zdeno Chara for Nick Leddy. Oh, and that team played at a 103-point pace last regular season too. Mat Barzal is this generation’s Patrik Elias, a crazy good player whose point totals are constrained by the defensive system that his team plays, but he could be my #1 center any day of the week.
Getting a healthy Anders Lee will be huge for New York and the thing about them is they can hit you with three decent scoring lines, and then their fourth line beats the shit out of you physically (Martin-Cizikas-Clutterbuck). They’re an exhausting team to play and they also have a great defensive group, including an elite top pair of Pulock-Pelech. The goalie tandem of the two Russians, Varlamov and Sorokin, is rock solid. No, there aren’t the flashy scoring stars of a Tampa or a Toronto, but their team is balanced and meticulously well-coached. You can’t expect the Islanders to beat themselves.
X-Factor: On a team that feels easy to project because of the seeming certainty, I’m going with Oliver Wahlstrom. A former high draft pick, I liked what I saw from Wahlstrom last year and with Eberle moving on, he has the opportunity to pick up some scoring slack and maybe grow into a running mate of Barzal. He’s got a sniping wrist shot and an improved Wahlstrom could boost the NYI PP.
My 100% Correct Prognostication: Amidst a division of good-but-not-great teams with question marks, the Islanders are the most projectable and also the closest to great. They’ve played at a 100-point pace under Trotz over three seasons and they might not be sexy, but the Isles are a good, physical hockey team that knows how to win. I still wonder if they can knock out two giants in a row to win a Cup, but there are no giants in the Metro, and that’s why NYI is my pick to win it and make another deep run.
103 points, lose in the conference finals
2. Washington Capitals
General Thoughts: I really had no idea where to go with #2, so I’m taking the team that’s just remarkably consistent at being good in the regular season. The players get older, but they just keep winning. This isn’t a real Cup contender in my eyes anymore, but no one in this division beyond the Isles really are. Alexander Ovechkin is one of the reasons to watch the NHL this season, as his quest to close in on Gretzky’s all-time goals mark soldiers along. He’s not the dominant force at even strength he once was, but the best shooter to ever play can shovel in goals on the PP at any age. This is an aging roster, but they should still get good play out of Nick Backstrom and TJ Oshie, the latter of whom I’m a big fan of. Anthony Mantha could score 35 if he finally plays a full 82, and they have a nice collection of gnats in the bottom six (Hagelin, Lars Eller, Garnet Hathaway). I don’t like the defense at all, but somehow they tend to cobble it together and scratch out wins. The goaltending tandem has a lot to prove but also has a high ceiling, with Ilya Samsonov only being a couple years removed from being the top goalie prospect in hockey.
X-Factor: Let’s go with last season’s trade deadline pickup, Anthony Mantha. Mantha has long been a fascinating collection of skills, a guy with size, speed, skill, and a great shot for a player that size. He’s had these stretches of games where he goes on a rampage and then has a tendency to fade, and injuries have kept him from ever reaching the 30-goal threshold. If there’s one area where the Caps could be improved compared to last season, it would be if they can get a huge season out of the Quebecois sniper.
My 100% Correct Prognostication: Despite picking them 2nd in the division, it still feels like the Capitals are on the way down. Losing Brenden Dillon and Zdeno Chara are not huge losses, but when the guys set to replace them are Michael Kempny and Trevor van Riemsdyk, uh… Better goaltending could paper over some of the cracks on defense, but there’s also a chance of some drop-off at forward with the aging curve setting in. There’s a 20% chance the wheels fall off the car this season for Washington, but the consistency the franchise has displayed reminds us that that is an unlikely probability. The Caps have long outperformed expected goal models because they have elite finishers, and I think that happens again, but not by a tremendous amount. A solid finish, but outside the tier of true contenders is my prediction.
99 points, lose in first round
3. New York Rangers
General Thoughts: My first curveball (well, besides that whole Leafs thing in article #1) is tabbing the Rangers to finish 3rd in the Metro. I actually think they had a pretty bad offseason, yet I like them in this slot because I think they’re a more balanced team than either of the Pennsylvania squads, even if they lack the track record of those teams. Last season the Rangers were a pretty bizarre team, winning a ton of blowouts and losing all the close games, finishing on an 87-point pace despite a better goal differential than four teams who made the playoffs. The offseason was wacky, firing the President, the GM, and the head coach, and then shipping out Pavel Buchnevich for pennies on the dollar. Yet I remain optimistic about this team because they have a good goaltender (Igor Shesterkin), a top five defenseman in Adam Fox, and a top ten forward in Artemi Panarin.
The star power is there, and they can throw two good defensive pairs at you (Fox-Lindgren, Trouba-Miller) and have four or five good scorers on offense. Losing Buchnevich sucks, especially when Sammy Blais is a downgrade, but they also upgraded at coach in getting Gerrard Gallant, who could make a big difference. Factor in a potential sophomore leap from Alexis Lafreniere, and perhaps more progression from K’Andre Miller, Vitali Kravtsov, or Kaapo Kakko, and you can understand why I like them to overcome the bad summer. They just need moderately better luck, a full season from Panarin with no Putin-related meddling, and some young guys to pull through, and I think they’re ahead of the other teams in this deep but not elite division.
X-Factor: My original pick was Mika Zibanejad but the contract being resolved eliminates him from contention. Instead, I guess we can talk about Igor Shesterkin, who was good last season but has the potential to become great this year. A highly thought of prospect, Shesterkin is further along in his NHL development than Samsonov, and so for him, the question is whether this is the season he leaps into the Vezina conversation. If he does, it’s possible the Rangers take 2nd in the Metro… or maybe 1st.
My 100% Correct Prognostication: I’m taking the Rangers to finish 3rd in the Metro. Their top end talent at important positions wins out and when you compare rosters to the other teams in this division, I like NYR’s over the other contenders, and the youth and coaching-based upside also differentiates them from PIT/PHI/CAR, who all have larger downside risk. My projected finish sets up a matchup with the Caps in the first round and I will roll the dice and say the Rangers pull the upset, creating an incredible Isles/Rangers battle in the second round. The Isles emerge victorious from that.
98 points, lose in the second round
4. Philadelphia Flyers
General Thoughts: The Flyers had my favorite offseason of any team, because they alternated between brilliant moves and laughably terrible ones. On one hand, they fleeced the Preds to get a high-end player at a position of need in finessing Ryan Ellis, but then they gave up a first rounder for Rasmus Ristolainen, a player so bad I would debate whether I would accept a first rounder as the price to take him off someone else’s hands. They rid themselves of the Voracek deal to get a similarly bad one in Cam Atkinson (sure). They brought in a veteran PP specialist in Keith Yandle (fine). And then they made my favorite singular move of the offseason: the Flyers looked at their horrendous goaltending from last season, a situation so bad almost anyone could be an upgrade over Brian Elliott, and they picked maybe the only goalie on the market who might be worse in signing Martin Fucking Jones. Incredible.
Last year’s Flyers team was a defensive calamity: they couldn’t prevent Grade A chances and had two goalies who couldn’t make saves on Grade B chances. The road to redemption involves the rebuilt defense which isn’t really inspiring me outside of the Ellis move. If they want to keep more pucks out of the net, it probably comes down to improvement from Carter Hart. The forwards should be pretty good, even if they didn’t quite score at the expected rate last season. I like Joel Farabee though, and between Giroux, Couturier, Hayes, there’s talent up front.
X-Factor: It’s gotta be Carter Hart. He went from potential starting goalie for Team Canada’s Olympic roster to maybe the worst goalie in the NHL in one season. That’s the nature of the position, but there’s a lot on the line for Hart, and if one player can single-handedly improve the Flyers, it’s Hart. He was -24 GSAx last season. If he gets back merely to 0 (he was +7 in 2020), that’s a ton of goals not going in the net. Twenty goals is equivalent to ~7 standing points as an NHL analytics rule of thumb, so goaltending improvement right there could get the Flyers into the playoffs.
My 100% Correct Prognostication: Last season felt like the worst-case scenario with this core of players. 2020’s marvelous campaign felt like the best-case scenario with this core. I think 2022 lands somewhere in between. They have a legitimately good top six, a top pair that should be solid, and I’m betting on Carter Hart improvement. The depth scoring and that bottom four really worry me, as will the 25 starts Martin Jones gets, because that’s 25 too many for a goalie who hasn’t been good in four years. But this is a division with a lot of flawed teams, and I’m betting on disappointment from Carolina and Pittsburgh, so someone has to pull through and grab the last playoff spot, and I’m tabbing on Philly to do it.
96 points, lose in the first round
5. Pittsburgh Penguins
General Thoughts: My big prediction here is that the Penguins miss the playoffs for the first time in the Crosby era. I had to make another gamble somewhere, and this is where I’m putting my chips. I thought they got worse in the offseason, losing Brandon Tanev and Jared McCann, as well as Cody Ceci, something I never thought I’d consider a negative. They had little cap bandwidth to patch those holes, and also decided to run Tristan Jarry/Casey DeSmith back out there after another postseason goalie meltdown. Rather surprising. They’ve got a solid top six but going two months without Malkin could be devastating to the team’s chances of making the playoffs in a division that is poised to be as tight as the Metro is. And outside of your top six, there’s little scoring to be found from the forwards, even if Teddy Blueger and Zach Aston-Reese are great at closing games out (they’ll miss Tanev as the third piece, though).
The defense feels a bit wobbly to me beyond the Letang-Dumoulin pairing. There’s not a lot of depth here if injury strikes, and you’re counting on PO Joseph, Mike Matheson, and Marcus Pettersson to turn in significant minutes. Could work out, but also could end in disaster. And the goaltending duo is still very questionable. Underscoring all of this of course is the age concern. Age is already being factored in through Malkin’s injury, but you’re looking at your top two forwards being age 34 and 35 (not to mention Jeff Carter turning 37 in January!), and your 1D being 34. A lot like Boston, any slip down the aging curve and look out.
X-Factor: I’m going to change the angle I’ve been taking and go with Sidney Crosby. A lot of these X-Factors are questionable players who could be good, but with Crosby, I’m asking “how much longer can he be this good?”. Malkin’s absence means that the Penguins will again lean heavily on Crosby to carry the weight of the forward group, and he is really the key. So long as Crosby remains an elite centerman, the Penguins will be relevant. But any injury or slippage in Crosby’s game and this team tumbles hard. He’s still a monster play-driver and has been reasonably healthy since the 2011-12 injury period, but it could always strike again. Especially when you’re 34.
My 100% Correct Prognostication: Well, I already said the main component: the Penguins are going to miss the playoffs. Not by a lot. But with the Atlantic taking four spots up easily, the Metro will have 7 teams contending for 4 spots, and I think the Malkin injury leaves them just short of NY, Philly, and Washington. Maybe it’s because Letang slips, or Crosby gets hurt, or they really do miss the pieces they lost, but Pittsburgh is gonna come up short.
95 points, miss playoffs
6. Carolina Hurricanes
General Thoughts: If you want to talk about a team with some baaaaad vibes surrounding them, then we should discuss the Hurricanes. They had a humiliating offseason that saw Dougie Hamilton, Alex Nedeljkovic, and Warren Foegele all leave because owner Tom Dundon revealed himself to be a giant cheapskate. Then to cover up the fact that their owner doesn’t give a damn, they brought in known Locker Room Cancer Tony DeAngelo, whose last stint in the NHL ended with him being punched in the face by his team’s captain after starting a fight with the goalie and more or less being excommunicated from the franchise. DeAngelo is an undeniably talented hockey player who has caused problems at literally every stop of his career, and this is the guy they bring in to fill the shoes left by a top 10 defenseman leaving in free agency.
Meanwhile on offense they replaced Warren Foegele by ceding a first-round draft pick for Jesperi Kotkaniemi, and then reshuffled their goalies by signing Freddie Andersen and Antti Raanta. I just struggle to see how this team isn’t worse on both defense and in net, and the general vibe around the franchise and its fanbase is not optimistic. The forward group remains really good, I’ll give them that. Sebastian Aho is a terrific goal-scoring centerman, Svechnikov could have a great season, and who doesn’t love watching Marty Necaš play? That forward group may be enough to drag the team to the playoffs, especially when Jaccob Slavin and Brett Pesce do still exist, but the vibes are hard to ignore.
X-Factor: Frederik Andersen is my pick, but it could easily be Antti Raanta. The ‘Canes got quietly great goaltending last season from Nedeljkovic, who was a Calder finalist, and Petr Mrazek, who was nearly unbeatable in his 12 games. The team was +21.8 in GSAx last season and now is rolling with a tandem that combined for a -13 GSAx finish last season. Andersen is the one who has higher upside given how good he was on those early Matthews-era Leafs teams behind a bad defense, but he’s been bad and injured for two straight years. Raanta is normally good but was hurt last season and played 12 games. Combined, the goalie tandem played just 36 games last season. That’s quite worrying, and someone needs to step up to get Carolina back to the playoffs.
My 100% Correct Prognostication: As I’ve typed this out, I’ve started to understand why they could get back to the playoffs. The forwards + Slavin/Pesce are quite good, but then I got to the goalies and I remembered why I was down on them. Maybe they sneak back in, because there is a lot of talent and the Metro is wide open. But I’m holding firm on the Canes narrowly missing out. It’s a crapshoot, but I have them falling just short.
94 points, miss the playoffs
7. New Jersey Devils
The Devils have one playoff win since their unlikely run to the 2012 Stanley Cup Final, the last gasp of the Brodeur/Elias era. The team now seems closer than at any time since then to win more than one playoff game, but I still think they might be a year away. They had a great offseason, bringing in Tomas Tatar, who probably won’t help you win any playoff games but is very effective at getting you there, to solidify the top six. NJD then took advantage of Colorado’s vulnerable expansion draft situation and swiped a solid defender in Ryan Graves, brought in a steady #2 netminder in Jonathan Bernier, and then made the biggest FA splash of any team in signing Dougie Hamilton. All things considered, the Devils are a much better team than they were last season, and they have a lot of young pieces who could continue to improve.
Jack Hughes took that next step last season, and this could be the liftoff year to PPG status. If they can just get a healthy season of Nico Hischier, the Devils could very well have a playoff-caliber 1-2 center tandem. Yegor Sharangovich and Janne Kuokkanen played well together when paired with Hughes as an intriguing young line, and there are players down the line up who offer real attributes (Wood, Bratt, Zacha). I still question the defense’s ability to defend when you have Damon Severson and Ty Smith as your 2-3, and PK Subban also skating in your top six, but adding Hamilton and Graves improves things. Bernier was also a sneaky good get to provide support behind Blackwood, especially now that Blackwood may have to miss a number of games because of the vaccine. I am a big fan of what this franchise is doing to move towards competitiveness.
X-Factor: Nico Hischier remains a pretty interesting character. Considered the safest option in a weak draft, he has since seen the guys drafted below him boom (Heiskanen, Makar, Pettersson), while his career hasn’t quite hit that level. But it’s mostly been injury related, because when Hischier has been healthy, his traditional and analytical metrics have been really good. He will probably never reach the Pettersson/Makar level of elite, game-breaking talent, but there’s every reason to believe he can still be a 60-70-point center who plays a polished, 200-foot, all-situations game, which is a damn valuable piece. I just really hope we get a full season of Hischier and get to see the Swiss center blossom.
My 100% Correct Prognostication: I still think the Devils aren’t quite there yet, but they could be. New Jersey’s PP was poor last season but adding Dougie Hamilton (and maybe Alexander Holtz at some point?) could provide a lightning bolt into that unit. More growth of young forwards is another reason for hope. Same thing for a big year in net. That said, the defense and general youth/inexperience leads me to say “wait one more year” to Devils fans.
92 points, miss the playoffs
8. Columbus Blue Jackets
General Thoughts: The Blue Jackets are now in a Sorta Rebuild, after they dealt away Seth Jones and Cam Atkinson, but they also took on the Voracek contract and inked Zach Werenski to a massive extension. The team had a booty of first round picks in July’s draft after their busy deadline and taking the franchise down this path was the right move. I probably would’ve looked at moving Werenski too, but I understand why CBJ had to re-sign him: they had to convince their fans that (1) star player is willing to remain with the franchise for more than a day longer than they’re legally obligated to. It was a lot like when Arizona had to re-sign OEL, a sign of legitimacy that this is not a joke of organization after the Jones debacle. Speaking of which, they made out like bandits on that Jones deal, and I love getting Adam Boqvist in return. A hot take I have is that within two seasons Boqvist will be better than Jones.
The rest of the defense beyond Werenski and Boqvist is questionable, but good on them for taking a flyer on Jake Bean too. They probably still can’t score and should look at moving Laine if possible. The goaltenders in Columbus have been overrated by fans relative to the public for a awhile now, and I mostly have no take on that debate. This will probably be one of the most painful teams to watch in the NHL.
X-Factor: There isn’t a lot of reason to watch the Blue Jackets this year, but Cole Silinger has made the Opening Night roster, so it’s worth taking a peek at him. He was CBJ’s first rounder that they used the Jones pick on. I wasn’t a huge fan of Silinger’s profile, but a lot of other smart people were fans of his, and it’s always interesting when a guy picked outside the top 10 immediately makes an NHL roster. And obviously a strong rookie campaign from him could give Jackets’ fans some hope for the future.
My 100% Correct Prognostication: This is a team in transition. Columbus wasn’t a good team last year and are now probably worse after the offseason changes. They won’t be abject with players like Werenski, Boqvist, Bjorkstrand, and adequate goaltending in net, but they will be offense-starved and in a deep division like the Metro, I expect them to be in the cellar position wire to wire.
79 points, miss playoffs