Previously: Part I (Atlantic), Part II (Metro)
Today we unveil Part III and Part IV of my 2021-22 NHL Season Preview. This post digs into the Central Division using the same formula as we’ve been previously using, going team by team in order of projected standings and giving general thoughts, an X-Factor, and my prognostication for the season for each team:
1. Colorado Avalanche
General Thoughts: The stars are all still here in full force. They’ve got the only line in the NHL to rival the Perfection Line, and it can rip you open in the blink of an eye. MacKinnon is probably the best non-McDavid center on earth, Rantanen is a top five player at his position, and Landeskog is the glue that keeps it together. They’ve also still got one of the best top pairs in the NHL with Makar and Devon Toews, and if they can get a fully healthy season from Bowen Byram, Colorado may still boast the best defensive group in the league. Losing Ryan Graves was a bummer, but if Ryan Murray can return to his level of play from Columbus, that’s a terrific solution.
The questions I have are with the depth scoring and in net. Avs lost Grubauer, and it’s not often you see a team on the verge of winning a title let a Vezina finalist walk out the door. Grubauer undoubtedly saw his stats inflated from playing behind that defense, but I like Darcy Kuemper as a replacement. Still, you have some questions about transition costs, but there shouldn’t be a big drop off. The one area where I think the team is clearly worse than last season is the bottom three forward lines after losing Donskooi and Saad, without really doing anything to replace them. You have to hope that Alex Newhook can cover up some of that drop off, but Saad was one of the most consistent goal scorers in the NHL. Newhook is probably the future Nazem Kadri replacement rather than a proper solution to losing Saad.
X-Factor: Is it fair to say Nazem Kadri? The guy just cannot stop getting suspended in the playoffs, and it kills his team every time. If Kadri plays all seven games in 2019, I think it’s pretty likely that Toronto beats Boston in that series, and the same for last season against Vegas. Stone’s line neutered the MacKinnon line, and Colorado didn’t have another engine to kickstart a second scoring line without Kadri. He has to find a way to stay on the ice in big playoff moments… it drove him out of his first NHL team and in a contract year, it’s on the verge of driving him out of Colorado too. It’s hard to picture the Avs beating an elite playoff team without Kadri in the lineup.
My 100% Correct Prognostication: There’s no question in my mind that the Avs are the best team in the Central. Yeah, they probably got worse in the offseason losing those pieces, but the young talent in Newhook and Byram could mitigate it some and the talent is still overwhelming. Colorado played at a 120-point pace last season… even if they got a bit worse, they qould still comfortably be one of the top three or four teams in the league, and that’s what I think they are. Their defensemen can skate circles around you, the PP is murderous, and the combination of speed and skill across the lineup is unmatched in this division, and it isn’t close. You have to think there’s a fair bit of pressure building in Denver, after this team has failed to get out of the second round in three straight seasons. This is their window: you’re not going to get the second-best player on earth for $6 M per season that much longer and as each piece costs more, the ability to have depth like they did last season wanes. So, is this the year they do it? I think yes.
114 points, win Stanley Cup
2. Winnipeg Jets
General Thoughts: If you could take any player to build a team for the 2021-22 season, is Connor Hellebuyck one of the first five picks? I would say so. Vasilevskiy has gotten the playoff adoration because he has played on a team with a vastly better roster, but Hellebuyck has been the best goalie in the NHL for a couple seasons now when you consider the full sample of games. He’s saved 41.42 goals above expected over the past four seasons, single-handedly beating the Oilers back in May, and Hellebuyck has routinely dragged a Winnipeg team that has been rapidly declining in the advanced metrics at 5v5 to the playoffs. The good news for Hellebuyck is that he may have quite a bit more help. I loved what they did in getting Brenden Dillon and Nate Schmidt. Neither dude is a star, but when combined with Pionk and Morrissey, Winnipeg might actually have a respectable top four. Defense was their giant weak spot, and they got a lot better there.
Adding Riley Nash should help too if he can lead a line where just nothing happens when they’re out there (which is his specialty). There’s reason for concern with that top line, which cannot play defense to save its life, but they can score, and if Pierre Luc-Dubois fully adjusts to life in Manitoba, this could be a very dangerous team. Consistent scoring + decent defense + dominant goalie is a combo that I think clearly puts the Jets above the other teams in the division and makes them most likely to challenge Colorado in the Central.
X-Factor: No question it’s Pierre-Luc Dubois. The disgruntled Quebecer proved himself to be a rational human by wanting out of Ohio and was flipped to Winnipeg for Patrik Laine, and then both guys were duds with their respective teams. The Jets need a much better PLD if they want to have a shot at a deep playoff run. Considering he gets to play with Nikolaj Ehlers, one of the most electric playmakers/transition forwards in the NHL on one wing, and either Andrew Copp or Paul Stastny on the other wing, PLD can’t claim he’s not getting help. The Jets have the support he needs to blossom, and the potential for him to be a very good two-way, bigger bodied centerman is there. I think he has a good shot of getting back to his 2019 form this season… Winnipeg needs him to.
My 100% Correct Prognostication: I like the Jets. Kevin Cheveldayoff had a great offseason and made his team measurably better. If Hellebuyck is remotely like he’s been the last couple seasons, this is a playoff team easily. And I think they have more stars and a higher probability of causing problems in that division than any other team, so I’ll peg them for the #2 spot.
101 points, lose in second round
3. Dallas Stars
General Thoughts: The Stars are a squad I’m a tad higher on than the rest of the hockey world it seems. They played at a 92-point pace last season despite a mountain of injuries and COVID-related shenanigans that hurt their season. With a little better luck, I think they’d have been a playoff team last year. Roope Hintz has quickly become a terrific player, and Jason Robertson nearly made a run for the Calder last season. Those two + Pavelski were 58% xGF% last season. If you get Tyler Seguin and Alex Radulov healthy and throw them on a line with Jamie Benn, that’s two legit scoring lines who can also play a full 200-foot game. Age is obviously concern for all three of the players on that line, not to mention the 37-year-old Pavelski who found the fountain of youth last season, but they already saw a lot of injuries there last year, so it’s not like it’s an unforeseen possibility.
The depth scoring is bad, and this team doesn’t really even attempt to score when the third and fourth lines are on the ice. But they might not need to if they get more games from Seguin and Radulov. The defense will miss Jamie Oleksiak, but Ryan Suter’s a decent replacement and Hakanpaa was a great signing for the boring, defensive style that Dallas wants to play. All eyes will be on the Klingberg contract situation… he and Lindell have to be better this year (49% xGF% in 2020-21). Miro Heiskanen is a darn good player though, and I think this could be the season where he moves into the serious Norris conversation. The goalie situation is a mess, but not necessarily a bad mess. You have to think that out of Holtby, Khudobin, Oettinger, and Bishop they find someone who can give them 50+ good games.
X-Factor: John Klingberg. I’ve never been a huge Klingberg fan, but he has a lot of skills in his toolkit. He’s one of the best at dancing the blue line, he gives you a lot on the PP, and is a very creative player. For a team that relies on its defensemen to drive transition play and push the pace forward, Klingberg is crucial to Dallas. In a contract season, whether he gets traded probably comes down to their record in March. If the Stars are headed for the playoffs, you probably have to keep him. On the bubble fading out, and he might be one of the hottest names on the market. Fascinating to follow.
My 100% Correct Prognostication: I think the Stars get back to the playoffs. They were a firmly mediocre team last season, and it may only take a little better than that to get into the playoffs in a Western Conference that is wide open beyond the two big dogs. The Stars have talent at key positions and plenty of experience to guide them through the regular season. Goaltending is the mystery, but again, I think someone emerges from that dogpile that is good enough to push the Stars into the playoffs. They probably won’t make a deep run once they get there, but I like Dallas to be playing hockey in May.
97 points, lose in the first round
4. St. Louis Blues
General Thoughts: The Blues had one of the better off-seasons in the league to me, bringing in two legit top six wingers at a pretty low cost. The Brandon Saad contract was reasonable, especially for someone who scores goals as consistently as him, and then they fleeced the Rangers for Pavel Buchnevich, who’s a fine player himself. Ryan O’Reilly is one of my favorite centers in the NHL and David Perron is coming off a great campaign. When you factor in Jordan Kyrou, Robert Thomas, and Zach Sanford, there are three decent lines for this team, and I think their scoring should definitely see an uptick. Especially if Vladimir Tarasenko can rejuvenate his career (more on that later).
On the blue line St. Louis didn’t make any upgrades, which is a bit worrying given that they finished 19th in goals against per game, but there are still some players here. Torey Krug is an important part of their PP and a passable defender. Justin Faulk is fine as a #3, and if Colton Parayko can re-find his 2019 form, there shouldn’t be major issues on defense. I do think that if the Blues are in the hunt at the deadline that they look to make a move to bolster the backend. Jordan Binnington is a solid goalie who has been consistently decent over his first three years in the NHL, and there are a lot of teams who would take the stability he provides in a heartbeat.
X-Factor: This one is pretty easily Vladimir Tarasenko. It wasn’t that long ago that Tarasenko was a consistent 35-40 goal scorer, and one of the best RW’s in the NHL. But for some reason it seems like winning the Cup robbed him of his mojo, because he has not been the same since the conclusion of the 2019 season. Injuries have mounted, and the dissatisfied winger wanted out of St. Louis this offseason. A trade never happened, and Seattle balked at taking him in the Expansion Draft, so he’s back in the lineup for the Blues and one of the most intriguing players to watch this season. Tarasenko turns 30 in December, so it’s not like he’s over the hill- a monster performance that reasserts himself in the scope of the NHL is quite plausible and would really help boost the Blues.
My 100% Correct Prognostication: Last season was very disappointing, as the Blues played at an 88-point pace, only making the playoffs because they played in a week division, and then got blown out by Colorado in the blink of an eye. They were clearly a team not up to snuff, but I think they improved in the offseason and have a few guys who seem like they could re-find their old form (Parayko, Tarasenko). If just one of them does, this is probably a playoff team since Minnesota got worse, and I think that’s what happens. Book the Blues for a ticket in the postseason, though probably not a deep run.
96 points, lose in the first round
5. Minnesota Wild
2020-21 was a banner year for the Wild, who played at a 110-point pace (!) and took the Golden Knight to seven games in the first round, showing that they may be a rising force in the West. Then they went through a rough offseason where they assumed gigantic cap hits in buying out Ryan Suter and Zach Parise, while also losing Ian Cole and Carson Soucy, opening up some holes in the defense and they didn’t have much money to fill them, bringing in bargain-buy veterans like Alex Goligoski and Dmitry Kulikov. Up front the Wild still have some high-impact players, a statement rarely uttered in this franchise’s 20-year history. Kirill Kaprizov is one of the most watchable players in the league, an electric playmaker who oozes skill. Joel Eriksson Ek transformed into a defensive monster, and Kevin Fiala and Mats Zuccarello are a good pieces too.
My question is really beyond that, where the depth scoring is a bit dicey. Last season they were able to have a bunch of players chip in goals here and there, but it feels like they lack an impact second line the way Dallas could if their guys get healthy, and the way Winnipeg and St. Louis do. Defensively their top three players are all still studs, with Jared Spurgeon in particular continuing to be a great player. There is some drop off after that, again. It shouldn’t be a bad defensive group but part of me thinks they’ll be lucky to replicate last year. The biggest story from 2020-21 that no one talked about is how much better Cam Talbot got, which was a major engine fueling Minnesota’s success. Kaapo Kahkonen also had a great run in February that helped the team. Can either of those two guys replicate that? Not sure.
X-Factor: Take your pick of young player here, Marco Rossi, Matt Boldy, or Calen Addison. The Wild are about to enter a stretch of some lean years where they will be majorly hamstrung by the cap and will rely on young players on ELC’s to give them good production that they can’t otherwise attain from established veterans when Suter and Parise are clogging 15% of the cap to not play for Minnesota. These three pieces are some of the most immediate options to try and step up. It may be a bit early for any of them to make a splash in the NHL, but their development in the AHL’s Iowa Wild is a huge story to watch, and all will be tracked closely if and when they reach the league.
My 100% Correct Prognostication: The Wild are probably going to be worse, between goaltending reverting to the mean and losing some pieces on the roster. But their level of play last season was so high that they can afford to fall a bit and still be in the playoffs, and that’s what I think happens. There are still enough playmakers and depth across the lineup to get them there and it means that the Central snags both western wild cards. A quick exit after facing one of the top dogs in the west is likely, though.
95 points, lose in the first round
6. Chicago Blackhawks
General Thoughts: The Blackhawks were one of the busiest teams in the offseason, reeling in players at all three positions to try and get this squad back to the playoffs before the Kane and Toews era is over. Speaking of Toews, getting him back will be a boon for this team, just because his leadership cannot be underestimated. When healthy, he’s still a two-way force and the three rings talk. But how healthy can he be? If he plays like he did in 2019, their top line with himself, Kane, and DeBrincat, is one of the best lines in the league. But is the autoimmune condition that wiped out his 2020-21 season fully gone? I’m not a doctor, so I can’t say. I was not a huge fan of the Seth Jones deal, but Caleb Jones is decent, and Jake McCabe was a sneaky good pickup. The defense is better, but I still don’t think it’s good.
Really, they need Marc-Andre Fleury to have another dynamite season. You can make the playoffs with one great line and a hot goalie, but Fleury’s miraculous season last year came just one year after a poor campaign, and the Flower is gonna turn 37 in November. Chicago needs him to be Vezina-caliber again to make the postseason, and the probability he’s that good for a second straight year feels low. The depth scoring is also a concern. A lot of this team also hinges on Kirby Dach’s development, because there’s not much help. Tyler Johnson’s still a decent player, but you’re counting on Kubalik, the worse Strome, and Alex Nylander + TJ and Dach to provide goals? I don’t know about that.
X-Factor: Given the price that Chicago paid, 8-years and $76 M, it has to be Seth Jones. Long the most polarizing player in the league and the one who best epitomizes the Analytics vs Eye Test debate, almost everyone agrees he had a poor season last year. Chicago is paying him like a #1 defenseman, but is he that kind of player? I am very skeptical, but for this team to make the playoffs, they at least need good play out of Jones. A bad season from him and it’s game over.
My 100% Correct Prognostication: This team has a wide range of outcomes. In some ways they feel like the 2008 Detroit Tigers, who made a ton of moves in the offseason, came in with high hopes, and then fizzled hard. Kane’s still an elite passer, DeBrincat’s an elite goalscorer, and they’ve got the reigning Vezina winner in net, but again, a lot of questions. This is a competitive Central Division, and I will remain a skeptic that this all comes together until I see it happen. For now, I think they fall short of the postseason.
86 points, miss playoffs
7. Nashville Predators
General Thoughts: I don’t really understand why the Predators are half-assing this sorta rebuild. They handed away Viktor Arvidsson, one of ~3 forwards on the roster with a pulse, for nothing, and then got fleeced in the Ryan Ellis deal. It’s hard to look at this roster and think it’s a playoff contender at this point, unless Juuse Saros is the Vezina winner. Their defense is a far cry from the monstrous top four that carried them to a Presidents’ Trophy in 2018. Josi and Ekholm are still great players, but your #3 guy is … Phil Myers? And your #4 is Fabbro? And this is on a team that couldn’t score last season, before it gave away Arvidsson to LA. Filip Forsberg is entering a contract year and you have to wonder if they just pull the plug on this whole era. I know the owners don’t want to do a rebuild and lose fan interest in a non-traditional market, but that’s your quickest path back to contention now. Saros is a genuinely great goalie, and maybe he keeps them relevant one more year.
X-Factor: Matt Duchene has to have one of the worst contracts in hockey, but actually not the worst on his own team thanks to Ryan Johansen. The Johansen deal was always bad, but Duchene’s tumble has been more surprising, with injuries setting in. Those two combined for just 35 points last season, and if the Preds have any hope of trying to make the playoffs, they’d need a monster season from Duchene to get there. Roman Josi can’t create all the offense from the backend on his own, and they need another engine to drive play in the top six besides Forsberg. Duchene used to be that type of player. Can he be in 2022?
My 100% Correct Prognostication: I think the Predators are cooked. They will win games they shouldn’t because they still have a few stars, but eventually they will realize the writing on the wall, trade a few pieces including Forsberg at the deadline, and then throw in the towel on the Smashville Era. The last month or so after the deadline will be brutal, and they finish firmly in the lottery. Maybe the lottery sends an elite talent to the Music City to jumpstart the rebuild.
83 points, miss the playoffs
8. Arizona Coyotes
General Thoughts: There’s something rather cruel about the fact that the two teams who best epitomized the 2015 Tank for McDavid debacle that forced the league to rejigger the lottery, Buffalo and Arizona, are the same teams who will be leading the Tank for Shane Wright crusade seven years later. This team is going to be baaaaaaad, but shoutout to their management group for recognizing it and committing to the rebuild full-stop. They did well to load up on picks in the summer and there are still a few pieces who can be shipped out at the deadline, including Gostisbehere and Phil Kessel (please send him back to Toronto… I NEED it).
When you’re starting Carter Hutton and Josef Korenar in net, you’re a very bad team, but there are a few decent players. I like Nick Schmaltz, Jakob Chychrun is a damn good player, and I loved how they finessed Connor Timmins from the Avs for Darcy Kuemper. They will be skating all the corpses of the league at forward, including all of Jim Benning’s bad decisions for the last five seasons + Andrew Ladd, but there are a few decent players. Still not enough to make me watch any of their games.
X-Factor: Let’s tab Clayton Keller for this. Keller was a highly thought of prospect back in the 2016 draft and he had a great rookie season in 2018 with 65 points. Since then, his development has just kind of stalled, and he’s failed to become a line-driving first line winger as he had seemed destined to be. If Keller can get his career back on track this season and round into a very good forward, that will push Arizona’s rebuild forward since he’s still only 23 (important to remember how young that 2016 class still is).
My 100% Correct Prognostication: This team sucks. They have a few players, but have purposely underfunded the goalie position, and are taking on terrible players to hit the cap floor as a way to tank. The tank will go as planned and they will have one of the two worst records. They find out their ping pong ball fate sometime in the spring.
70 points, miss the playoffs