2025 Detroit Tigers Season Preview

Making the playoffs was cool. Can they do it again?

Though I am a critic of the MLB season starting in March, that is the way it goes these days and as a result, the 2025 Detroit Tigers season begins tomorrow. They get to kick off their season against the reigning World Series champion Los Angeles Dodgers on Thursday night in a nationally televised game which 365 days ago would have seemed ridiculous but we can now say is a matchup of two playoff teams who are each starting former Cy Young winners. Hey, that’s fun!

The Tigers’ miracle run to the 2024 playoffs, which required them to go 31-13 in their final 44 games to qualify for the postseason, is the sort of story that will live in baseball lore for years. Now comes the difficult part: following that up with continued success. The offseason we just witnessed was an adequate one, Detroit adding at least one decent player each to its lineup, rotation, and bullpen, but they struck out on their big fish target in messy fashion and now have injury clouds hanging over their spring training heads.

That has led to a fanbase that is remarkably cranky online heading into the 2025 season, especially for one that follows a team that just made their first playoff appearance in a decade. Most projection models say that the Tigers are right in the middle of a pack that includes nearly every team in an American League seemingly set to be defined by mediocrity. So, one day out from Opening Day, I’m going to make the case for both sides of the optimism and pessimism coin in my 2025 Detroit Tigers Season Preview:

[Rick Osentoski/USA Today]

Why the 2025 Detroit Tigers will be good

Let’s start with optimism. It’s (supposedly) spring time and everyone is enjoying the renewal and sunshine, right? The good news is, the Detroit Tigers should still be able to pitch. They finished with the third-lowest team ERA and were tied for the 4th-fewest runs allowed in the MLB a year ago, thanks in large part to a strong pitching staff under the tutelage of Pitching Coach Chris Fetter. With the same personnel returning in its entirety, plus a few additions, the Tigers should be able to count on a very strong pitching staff.

Though Detroit’s historic run to the playoffs was fueled by “Pitching Chaos”, or the frequent absence of starting pitchers in favor of bullpen games or the Tampa Bay opener+bulk strategy, the Tigers go into the season with a proper starting rotation back in order and it should be a good one. Tarik Skubal, the reigning AL Cy Young and Pitching Triple Crown winner, is the best thing about this team. Dating back to his return from injury in July 2023, Skubal’s last 272 MLB regular season innings have been to the tune of a 2.51 ERA and a 0.91 WHIP. So long as he is healthy, Skubal will be one of the three or so best starting pitchers in the MLB. It goes a long way when you have a starter who gives you a high chance to win every five days.

The return of Jack Flaherty to the Tigers’ rotation gives the team a quality middle-of-the-rotation arm, even though most (including myself) don’t expect him to be as sharp as last year. Flaherty wasn’t as good with the Dodgers and there are some injury and velocity concerns, though he looked fine in spring. His Fangraphs projections of 150ish innings in the 3.80 ERA neighborhood makes sense to me and is fine. Reese Olson is about to begin his third MLB season and may be the actual #2 starter on staff. Through two MLB seasons, Olson has thrown 216 MLB innings to a 3.75 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP, with 8.5 K/9 and a 3.57 FIP to back it up. He’s good! Olson’s filthy slider and his rosy cheeks have become a mainstay in Detroit and if he continues to improve, as he did in 2024, Olson might be Detroit’s second-best starter.

The last two pieces of the Detroit rotation are less proven but have considerable upside. Casey Mize, erstwhile 1st overall pick, still hasn’t lived up to that billing and last season he was pretty middling in a back-end role, with some injury issues. He gave up far too many hits and continues to struggle to strike anyone out, which is why there is considerable hype with Mize K’ing 25 hitters in 19 spring innings. Mize’s fastball was juiced up last year but the optimism surrounds his splitter, the pitch he made his name on at Auburn, and how it may have become an MLB-caliber put-away pitch, in addition to improved breaking stuff. If Mize has found a strikeout pitch, the whole picture changes. The floor for Mize feels like merely replicating the mediocre performance of 2024, with much higher upside possible.

Finally there’s top prospect Jackson Jobe, #3 in AL Rookie of the Year odds per the bookies. We saw a glimpse of Jobe out of the pen during the end of last season and in the playoffs, but now becomes the real first trial of the 22-year-old. Jobe threw 91.2 innings across three minor-league levels last season, with a 2.35 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, and 9.4 K/9 as evidence of his prowess. The arsenal is filthy and pitching gurus have been salivating over him for years. There will inevitably be some bumps and refinement as Jobe works directly with Fetter and catcher Jake Rogers, but considering that Detroit’s 5th starter for much of last year was Kenta “6.09 ERA” Maeda, this will almost certainly be an upgrade.

The Tigers also have quality starting pitching depth, including Keider Montero, who made 16 starts for the team last year. Montero wasn’t incredible, but showed flashes and looked improved in spring. Alex Cobb was a surprising free agent signing who shouldn’t be counted on for a ton at age 37, given that he’s already injured, though he is throwing again. When Cobb pitches, he should be fine (his 2021-24 ERA is 3.75). There’s also Matt Manning and Ty Madden, both of whom should be in AAA and made some starts last season. I don’t rate either highly but for an 8th and 9th starting arm on an organizational depth chart, they’re fine. Sawyer Gipson-Long could factor in during the second half as he rehabs from Tommy John and hip surgery.

That bevy of starting pitching quality and depth is envious to most teams in the MLB and are the bedrock of why the Tigers should be at least a solid team. They also had a strong bullpen last season and return everybody. Three players were added to the pen in the offseason, righties Tommy Kahnle and John Brebbia and lefty Andrew Chafin. The latter didn’t break with the team out of camp since he was a late signing but will be a factor and was on the team last year, before being traded at the deadline to Texas. Chafin has found great success in Detroit and is a respectable bullpen arm. Kahnle and Brebbia were ostensibly added to boost the swing-and-miss ability of the pen as guys with high K rates. Kahnle is a quality veteran add with loads of playoff experience, while Brebbia had a rough 2024 with Chicago but improved after the trade to Atlanta and found success in San Fran in 2022 when GM Scott Harris was there.

The rest of the bullpen on paper looks pretty good, the late-inning trio of Jason Foley, Will Vest, and Tyler Holton all return, though a low velocity, subpar spring means Foley will start in Toledo. I have little doubt that Foley will be back at some point once he gets hiss arm going since he has been a regular in Detroit the last few years. Holton has been one of baseball’s best relievers over the past two seasons, throwing a ton of innings with extremely effective results. Vest has also been good the last two years and was especially dynamite in the 2024 playoffs. Brant Hurter could’ve been included in the starters section because he’s perfectly capable of doing that role or being a long-man in Detroit’s pen, a hero of the late-season surge who threw well from the left side.

Brennan Hanifee and Beau Brieske are beneficiaries of Foley starting in AAA, Brieske boasting more strikeout ability, while Hanifee is a groundball artist who was a late-season revelation. Sean Guenther threw important innings for the Tigers late last season and he wasn’t good enough in spring to even be in contention for a roster spot, which shows that this group also has a lot of depth to be comfortable with. And I haven’t even mentioned Kenta Maeda, whose $10 M salary apparently guarantees him a roster spot as a (likely seldom-used) long man. The best thing you can say after Maeda’s nightmare 2024 season is the K’s are up in spring, but so are the homers.

Altogether, this is a pitching staff that projects to be quite strong. It should keep runs against down and if you can pitch as well as the Tigers should be able to, you’re going to at least be in the neighborhood of .500 even with a BAD offense. It’s unclear if they will have such an offense, but hey we’re in the optimism section right now. There are at least a few hitters to be excited about!

Riley Greene being the most notable, a damn good baseball player. Last year Greene was a top 10 hitter in the AL among regular, non-platoon guys and earned his first All-Star appearance with 24 HR and an .827 OPS (133 OPS+) in 137 games at age 23. He is the current franchise player on the hitting side. Gleyber Torres is not a flashy player, something that got him unfairly derided in New York, but should be a solid player who pops 15-20 HRs, hits a bit above league average, and is worth 2-3 WAR.

Kerry Carpenter is a better pure hitter than Greene… if he gets to face only righties. All Tigers fans know the story by now, Carpenter is a former 19th round pick who is Aaron Judge when he faces righties and is never allowed to face lefties. His fielding has improved considerably but he is never going to be a plus-defender or baserunner, he’s really just there to rake and rake he does in his platoon role. Carpenter’s value thus can’t be as high as Greene’s but he appears in nearly every game he’s healthy for (which has been a bit of an issue). On the days he doesn’t start, he’s a supreme late-inning weapon as a lurking pinch hitter. He also gives the Tigers important power.

Detroit’s catching platoon of Jake Rogers/Dillon Dingler is viewed favorably by the projection models, because both have graded as strong defenders and can hit better at the MLB level than they did last year. Dingler was an excellent hitter at AAA, though he didn’t show it in the bigs last year, and Rogers was a much better hitter in 2023. Both have power and if they combine for 20 bombs + their strong D, that’s a very nice catching situation.

He’s injured to start the year, but it doesn’t seem like Matt Vierling will be out too long thankfully. Vierling showed last season that he’s more than a 4th outfielder/good bench player, appearing 144 games, hitting 16 HRs with a slightly above league average OPS+, and 2.6-3.0 WAR depending on which site you like. He’ll probably have to play more 3B than I’d like, though injuries may force him into CF. Wherever he is, Vierling should be a professional baseball player, as he’s proven to be.

[Nick Cammett/Diamond Images]

The X-FACTOR

Spencer Torkelson cannot be placed in either optimism or pessimism, because his performance may well swing the season. Torkelson was terrible as a rookie in 2022 and was still terrible to begin 2023, before seeming to flip a switch around the midway point of that year. His final 82 games of 2023 saw him hit at an .845 OPS clip, while crushing homers at a 43 per 162 pace alongside it. That built hype going into last season, with MLB Network inviting Torkelson and Greene to go to their studios to talk about how to hit while the Tigers were in New York playing the Mets in early April. Ironic because I wouldn’t want Torkelson talking to T-Ball players about how to hit based on last season.

In early June 2024, the Tigers did the stunning thing and sent Torkelson back to Toledo. It was the correct move, considering that Tork had a .201 batting average and a .597, with only four HRs in two months of baseball. But it was still a brutal sign of how far things had fallen. Torkelson was re-called in late August to join the push and he was a regular in the playoff lineup. His regular season stats improved upon re-call but still were not anything special when you consider the pedigree next to his name and the fact he is not a good baserunner and a poor fielder. After a playoffs that saw Torkelson be mostly ineffective at the plate, many were ready to move on and the offseason signing of Gleyber Torres endangered Torkelson’s role on the team.

But here we are at the spring training and like Michael Corleone, I am being pulled back in. Torkelson claims to have made several changes to his approach at the plate and at least in spring, it has worked. As I write this, Torkelson has a spring stat line of .340/.389/.680/1.069 with 5 HR in 50 AB and while some may disregard that, Torkelson’s woeful spring last year was the first sign something was wrong (he had a .463 OPS with 0 HR last spring). The biggest story with Tork is whether he can punish meatballs over the heart of the plate. Watching him foul back or pop up 92-93 mph fastballs center-cut last season was the sort of thing that drives people to insanity. His failure to catch up to and hit pitches on-time has been his consistent undoing.

If he can fix just that, there is still a good hitter here. You don’t totally give up on a guy who hit 30 HRs one season ago. I am letting myself be talked into Tork one last time, even though I don’t know if he’s a 1B or a DH or even an OF(????). This team needs hitting and if he can just do the second half of 2023 thing again, .800+ OPS with 30+ HRs, that changes everything for this lineup. If it comes through, suddenly the lineup has teeth, legit power from the right side. If it doesn’t, they’re in some trouble…

[Katelyn Mulcahy/Getty Images]

Why the 2025 Detroit Tigers will fall short

So let’s talk pessimism now. Every Tigers fan knows where this is going: can these guys hit at all? Riley Greene and platoon Carpenter are legit very good MLB hitters, but the other players mentioned in optimism are either “good relative to their position” (catchers) or are decent to good hitters who derive their value from an all-around game (Vierling/Torres). There aren’t a ton of other boppers here unless Torkelson comes on-line and even if he does, this ain’t the Dodgers lineup. Tigers fans know what it’s like watching a lineup that can’t hit at all because we saw it in 2022, 2023, and much of 2024.

It’s not fun and there’s fear of it happening again, especially with the situation on the left side of the infield and centerfield being… hairy. I do think that Scott Harris should’ve done more to help the hitting in the offseason, even if I am a fan of the Gleyber Torres signing. We know they wanted to do more given the Alex Bregman saga, which at least quieted down the “CHRIS ILITCH WILL NEVER SPEND” mouthbreathers after it was revealed that the Tigers did offer Bregman a six-year, $171 M contract. That’s not Juan Soto money, but it certainly isn’t Cleveland Guardians/Tampa Bay Rays business either. They badly wanted the player, made a highly competitive offer, and got left at the altar by Boras, Bregman & Co.

It’s a learning experience for a first-time GM but by going all-in on Bregman and whiffing, they missed the chance to get someone like an Anthony Santander, who would’ve helped the team’s hitting. There weren’t many good options at SS/3B beyond Bregman, I will admit, and the reality means we’re looking at a shortstop position likely platooned by Javier Báez and Trey Sweeney. I am getting tired of talking about Báez but he is back, with hopes that hip surgery will have improved him some. Spring training didn’t look incredible, though it was his best spring in Detroit.

We went into last year saying if “Báez can just be his 2022 self, that’s fine”, but instead, he was unplayable. A 46 OPS+(!!!!) hitter cannot be in the lineup even if he’s Ozzie Smith at SS and last year Báez the defender was not as good as he had been even at the start of his Tigers tenure. Báez has to be giving you 15 homers and ~75 OPS+, plus good defense (what he was in 2022), to make it worth your while.

If he can’t do that, then Sweeney will get his look after giving the Tigers a shot in the arm as a call-up for the late season run last year, playing surprisingly superb defense at SS and hitting just enough to make it work. However, the fundamentals that underpin his offensive approach, including the very high K-rate, are shaky and he wasn’t great in spring. Unless something dramatic changes, the Tigers’ SS situation will not be very good. The reality is it’s probably a place-holder until Detroit’s elite SS prospect Kevin McGonigle, who will likely be on the 2026 team (or maybe even this year’s team in September), arrives.

The same rather dour outlook is the case at 3B, should Vierling be playing in the OF. There you’re looking at a platoon of Zach McKinstry and Andy Ibañez. McKinstry is mostly a platoon guy to face righties but even against his preferred pitchers, he’s a subpar hitter with not much power (though he did hit a playoff HR!). Ibañez is the platoon guy to face righties, the dollar store Kerry Carpenter of the infield. Ibañez is an easy guy to cheer for and a playoff hero, but you’d really prefer him and McKinstry as bench/utility players, not as routine starters. Detroit didn’t get much out of its 3B production last year and that’s probably not going to change.

Vierling may need to play CF due to the mysterious situation with Parker Meadows. Long story short, Meadows has a nerve in his throwing arm that no longer works and no one really knows when it will. Uh oh!! Considering Meadows is arguably Detroit’s second-best position player, that sucks. Meadows was injured/bad for lots of last year, so that whole family may just be cursed. Meadows will be a hugely important player if he ever suits up for Detroit in 2025, a good hitter and stellar defender/baserunner, but don’t expect it until June at the earliest. That, in tandem with a back issue for Wenceel Perez, means that Báez could be playing CF. Or Ryan Kreidler, whose bat could be described as “Norm Cash holding the table leg against Nolan Ryan”. Or maybe new signing Manuel Margot, who looked cooked last season for Minnesota.

Thankfully Vierling shouldn’t be out too long and maybe the Tigers will just come to their senses about letting Riley Greene play center, which would let Detroit slide Torkelson or Justyn-Henry Malloy into a corner spot. JHen didn’t make the Opening Day roster because of the Kreidler obsession, but he’ll be up at some point and is a mini-X Factor on this Tigers team, a player with a hit tool that has actual upside. He was below average offensively in his first MLB stint in the 2024 regular season but was very good in the playoffs and has followed it up with a nice spring training. JHen isn’t a very well-rounded player but he draws a lot of walks and if he can provide a little power and hit closer to league average (or above), there may be a place for him.

I should also mention Colt Keith, the one regular who I haven’t gotten to. He could be optimism or pessimism as a wild card of his own, getting ready for his second season and playing a new position. I don’t know how his defense (which was fine at 2B) will play at 1B, but he’s going to need to unlock more power if the 1B experiment is a long-term thing. Keith is a player whose hitting I really believed in at the AAA level, but was fairly “ehhhhh” last season. He got off to a miserable start and was stronger from early May on, but was lackluster in the playoffs and needs to figure out how to pull the ball. I like that he draws walks and the expectation should be a league average hitter, but there could be more there.

Overall, it is hard to see this team as “good” offensively. They finished 19th in runs per game last season, 22nd in OPS+, and 24th in home runs. I do think they should be better offensively this year (see next section) but not by any large margin. If Riley Greene or Kerry Carpenter are injured for extended periods, it could get grim. They are definitely hoping for Keith or Torkelson or JHen or somebody (Jace Jung?) to break out and carry a little more weight. It’s not a lineup card, especially with Vierling/Meadows out, that fills you with a ton of warm fuzzies. And it could be the team’s undoing.

[Junfu Han/Imagn Images]

The Bottom Line

So now we’ve arrived at the concluding portion of the article, where we weigh both arguments and give a projection. The crankiness of the Tigers fanbase is an interesting phenomenon. I do get where it’s coming from, because while the team had an okay offseason, it didn’t go far in addressing their fatal flaw. Adding Kahnle, Brebbia, Torres, and Flaherty makes the team better and was more to improve the team than anything that Minnesota or Cleveland did to improve their teams. But three of those four additions are pitchers, with not much attention paid to hitting due to the Bregman fiasco. Had the team landed Bregman this would’ve been an A+ offseason, but instead it’s a big hole.

The Scott Harris administration has been defined by a tepid approach to free agency and trades, cautious or even timid if you like. They have gone very slow and steady, handing out little risk with their contracts (almost everything is a one or two year deal). There was the possibility to do more, or go more aggressively to shore up the team’s position in a weak AL Central, which didn’t happen. That’s why fans are annoyed, which again, I understand.

At the same time, the Harris regime just oversaw an 86-win season that was backed up in run differential (85-77 pythagorean theorem). Their signings and trades have generally been effective, not perfect but they did terrific business with the Flaherty and Michael Lorenzen signings. And the bedrock of any successful MLB franchise is consistent success drafting and developing players, something that the Tigers have not done successfully in the 21st century. That’s something that so far looks pretty solid for the Harris administration, as the team has the #1 farm system to MLB.com, the #2 farm system to Baseball America, the #3 farm system to Bleacher Report, and the #3 farm system to ESPN. When you are a team that just made the playoffs and you have a loaded pipeline, you’re doing something right.

Which is why I can’t feel OUTRAGED at the direction of the franchise or its leadership right now. They made the playoffs last season and earned the right for me to not hold the butcher’s knife to their throats for one season, especially with so much help seemingly on the way. Yes, they could’ve done more in the offseason, but getting duped by Bregman and Boras is not a hanging offense in this context. Maybe I’m too scarred by the Al Avila/David Chadd/Dave Littlefield Reign of Terror but I’m just pleased to have a regime running the Tigers that doesn’t consist of Brontosauruses and that is probably going to put a vaguely watchable product on the field.

So yeah, I do think this Tigers team will be watchable. If we look at the projections, Fangraphs has them pegged for 82.6-78.4 and a 45.8% chance of making the playoffs. ESPN has them at a nearly-identical 83-79 and 41.2% chance of making the playoffs and “TeamRankings.com” has them at 82.4-79.6, with a 41% chance of making the playoffs. Perhaps the most authoritative model, our gambling overlords in Vegas, have set the over/under for Tigers wins at 83.5 or 84.5 depending on site.

That all feels right to me? While it’s easy to look at the injury to Meadows and start hyperventilating comparing this roster to the team that looked like the 1927 Yankees down the stretch, we have to remember the full scope of last year’s team. They gave 92 games to washed Gio Urshela at 3B. They let Maeda throw over 100 innings. The perceived obvious weak spots on this year’s team (3B/SS) weren’t any good last year across 162 games either, so it’s not like you’re losing anything. Hell, even Meadows himself was really only a force for about 50 games in total. Your X-Factor Torkelson was worth 0.3 bWAR last season. Last year was not an “everything went right” season, even if August/September felt like it. If this squad can stick around 20th in offensive metrics, then they should be in the hunt given how good the run prevention portends to be.

Which is where my worry would actually be. A Skubal injury or bullpen arms being burned out from overuse last year or a 2024 Detroit Lions defense style Injury Apocalypse to the pitching staff is how things unravel because this team is not built with an offense that could pick up the slack. They are going to have to win tight, low-scoring games and if the pitching staff isn’t there, then it’s trouble. But the pitching should be there, because as we mentioned, this isn’t the 2013 Tigers leaning on five workhorse starters to shoulder 160+ innings each with a huge drop-off to the depth arms. Last year the Tigers absorbed injuries to Olson and Mize, ineffectiveness of Maeda, and the trade of Flaherty, and found ways to make it work because they have lots of depth, a highly versatile staff, and top-notch coaching.

Overall, I think this Tigers team will probably be mediocre but the entire American League could be described as the Battle of Mid. Most teams have a viable shot at the playoffs but no one is a true lock to me. Each team has reasons to believe they could be in October but also obvious flaws and concerns. The Tigers are no different. The AL Central is wide open, four teams vying for the crown. All of them have a couple big time hitters and some level of pitching proficiency but who do you really believe in? Is Detroit’s case clearly worse than that of Minnesota or KC or Cleveland? I don’t really think so and as a result, 86 wins may honestly take this division.

I’d expect the Tigers to be in that hunt and it will be disappointing if they aren’t. The goal for this season should be A) continued development of key young players and prospects, B) a second-straight winning record, C) a return to the playoffs, and D) an AL Central title, in that order. Anything in the playoffs or beyond is gravy, because I don’t think this is a World Series caliber roster yet. Maybe it will be in a few years when the prospect factory begins producing MLB players. For now, we’ll have to settle for a team that will probably be really good at pitching and hopefully wins slightly more than it loses to fill our summer. After a decade of darkness, that’s okay with me.

Prediction: 84-78, 2nd in AL Central