2025 Stanley Cup Playoffs - Most Likely To
Putting a fun spin on a 2025 NHL playoff preview
The most wonderful time to be a hockey fan is upon us, with the latest edition of the Stanley Cup Playoffs beginning tomorrow. I wanted to write something on this blog as a way to share my takes on the playoffs but I felt that many of the familiar formats are rather stale. Power rankings, team tiers, playoff series previews, I have done those before and those are covered in a lot of places on the interwebs. I wanted to do something different, something a bit unique and fun.
Enter the “most likely to” format. Most people who graduated high school remember this from the yearbooks, the page or two where the class selects various people from the grade as the “most likely to” do something, whether it’s “become a billionaire”, or “get married first”, or “go to outer space”, etc. It’s a light-hearted format and I thought it could be a fun way to share takes on these playoff teams. Imagine that all 16 teams are a graduating class, moving on from the regular season to the playoffs, and today I’ll be assigning each of them one “most likely to” label that sums up what we’re likely to see from them in the playoffs. We’ll start with in the Eastern Conference and then move West:
[Imagn Images]
Toronto Maple Leafs - Most likely to teach us about the power of playoff goaltending
Let’s face it: after eight years of the same old nonsense in the playoffs for the Leafs, everyone is searching for reasons to believe this time will be different. We could cite the coach Craig Berube, or a rebuilt blue line with Brandon Carlo, Oliver Ekman-Larsson, and Chris Tanev, but if the Maple Leafs finally embark on a deep playoff run, the most likely reason will be goaltending. During the Matthews/Marner era, the Leafs have seldom had a goalie with any playoff dawg. Their goalies haven’t been bad, but they’ve lacked the ability to consistently make the biggest saves in the biggest moments to flip the course of the series. The one time they did, Ilya Samsonov in 2023’s first round, is the one series they won.
This year, they might have it. Offseason signing Anthony Stolarz has been as good as it gets this year, appearing in 34 games with a blistering .926 SV% that leads the league among goalies with at least 30 games played. His underlying metrics on a per 60 basis are also best in the league and he comes into the playoffs red hot, riding an 8-game win streak with a .950 SV% and three shutouts in that span. Stolarz might be That Dude and even if he were to get hurt, backup Joe Woll is the only other goalie in this era of the Leafs to show consistent playoff dawg. The Leafs have struggled for the first time in many years to control play as questions have reverberated about whether Berube’s system works with this personnel, but they’ve gotten the regular season results due in large part to goaltending. If they finally get the playoff results, it will again be likely due to goaltending.
Ottawa Senators - Most likely to be the new playoff darling
Okay, I’m not saying that the Senators are going to go on a run. Upsetting Toronto is possible but not easy, and progressing any further considering the brutal playoff bracket they’re in is going to be difficult. But let’s say for a moment they do beat the Leafs and then take Florida or Tampa to let’s say 7 games in the second round… what will be the narrative? To me, it will be about how the Senators were built for PLAYOFF HOCKEY and how hockey media will try to sell all rebuilding teams on trying to style themselves after Ottawa.
Why? Ottawa’s captain is Brady Tkachuk and we already know how much hockey media is in love with the Tkachuk family due to Matthew. Brady showed out well at the 4 Nations for his ability to play heavy and effective hockey around the net in a playoff format. If he does that in these playoffs and wins his team some games, he will be elevated as a new playoff starlet.
But it’s not just Brady, as the Senators also have David Perron, an old veteran with a lot of fire who will be ready for the playoffs. There’s also Ridly Greig, a greasy SOB who we best remember for his slap-shot into the empty net igniting a brawl of sorts against the Leafs last season. The Battle of Ontario will likely be a bloodbath with tempers flaring and fisticuffs all around, and the Senators have enough rats to feel comfortable in that series. Not to mention that the Leafs are the Most Important Team in the Universe, meaning that if the Senators slay the Leafs playing this sort of way, as the Panthers did against Toronto in the second round two years ago, everyone will see it. And if it happens, we’re going to hear a lot of gushing praise from a hockey media class that is horny for fighting in the aftermath of the 4 Nations. A new star will be born.
Florida Panthers - Most likely to set new records for insufferability
Hey, wait a second! Isn’t this similar to the last section? Indeed it is, but as I stated, Ottawa becoming a playoff darling team is built off of how Florida ascended to become the team every hockey executive wants to copy. The Panthers are that nasty, physical, heavy, and fast team that beats you up and suffocates you with the forecheck. It’s earned them plenty of detractors over their last two deep playoff runs but let’s look from afar for a second and consider what happens if they make a third playoff run under these circumstances.
Matthew Tkachuk and Sam Bennett are slimy enough but now they’ve added BRAD MARCHAND to it. If Florida goes on another run, there’s a 100% chance Marchand does something classically Marchand and when he does it alongside Tkachuk and Bennett, a million tomato red faces will explode in fury. That said, it’s not just play style, as Florida is still playing in a No Tax State, which is everyone on hockey twitter’s #2 favorite thing to complain about.
Right after #1, which is teams that manipulate Long Term Injured Reserve to exceed the salary cap in the playoffs… which the Panthers also did this season for the first time, using Tkachuk’s stint on LTIR to add Marchand and Seth Jones. A team in a no tax state using LTIR manipulation to win a Cup set off endless rounds of discourse when the Lightning did it four years ago but they didn’t have anyone as detestable as the three musketeers Florida now boasts. If the Panthers go deep, I would advise staying away from hockey internet comment sections for a little while because we will never hear the end of the shrieking banshees.
Tampa Bay Lightning - Most likely to represent the Eastern Conference in the Stanley Cup Final
Oooh!!! Teasing my prediction! I have the Lightning turning back the clocks and coming out of the East, which somehow qualifies as a mildly bold take when multiple articles I have read have them outside the top 8 most likely Stanley Cup Champions. That’s crazy to me when the Bolts have the second best goal differential in the NHL, have winning playoff pedigree, and strong underlying numbers. My biggest reason for buying Tampa Bay stock is the rest differential, as the Lightning have had two quick playoff exits and long summers to rest, while their vaunted first round playoff opponent, the Florida Panthers, are coming off back-to-back deep runs and shorter summers. In a grueling seven game series, I think Tampa’s more rested and healthy squad may win out.
The other thing that tips the scales for the Lightning over Florida is Andrei Vasilevskiy, who looks back to 100% after a couple uncharacteristic playoffs. From 2020-22, Vasy was 48-23 with a .928, 2.09 GAA, and seven shutouts in the playoffs en route to two Cups and a third finals appearance. Right now he looks back to that sort of goalie. While Bobrovsky from Florida has been good but not great, I think Vasilevskiy may give the Lightning an edge.
And if they can get by Florida, Tampa will be in good shape with a forward lineup with as much punch at the top as ever. Nikita Kucherov won another scoring title and drove arguably the NHL’s best line with Brayden Point and Jake Guentzel this season. Tampa boasts an elite 2nd line duo of Anthony Cirelli and Branden Hagel, beefed up their depth at the trade deadline, and have the tanned, tested, and ready trio of Victor Hedman, Erik Černák, and Ryan McDonagh on the back-end. The Lightning are a monster that’s been slept on some while their Sunshine State brethren stole the spotlight, but this year I’m picking the Bolts to steal the spotlight back.
[Chris Szagola/AP]
Washington Capitals - Most likely to be at the mercy of the PDO Gods
The Caps are a fine team, a perfectly good playoff squad who deserve praise for enacting a gutsy retool on the fly that has worked with flying colors. But are they 111 points good? Depends on if the PDO (save percentage + shooting percentage) Gods are working in their favor. Look under the hood and you’ll see that the Caps have been a fairly consistent team at getting about ~51% of the shots in the games they play across the full season. That usually reflects a team that ends up with 95-100 points and is either a wildcard or the third seed in a division. But for all of this year, the Caps have enjoyed remarkable finishing luck and for a lot of it, an elite SV% too.
Washington has the highest team shooting percentage (12.5%) of the analytics era (dating back to 2007-08) and that’s been a key part of their success. Everything they have thrown at the net has gone in, leading to juiced goal totals for players that are probably better than those players are actually capable of. For the first seventy or so games, Washington also got elite goaltending alongside it, which had them on pace to get as many as 120 points in late March. That’s come crashing down recently, as Logan Thompson has gone from a likely Vezina runner-up to possibly not a finalist due to an .877 SV% since February 1. Charlie Lindgren has held up better, but not by much (.883).
We know the Caps’ ability to control play is that of a solid playoff team but not really a Stanley Cup contender. If they continue to score their chances at a super high clip while the goaltending struggles, they’ll likely beat Montreal and then lose to Carolina. If the goaltending returns and the exceptional finishing continues, this team has a chance to go all the way to the Cup Final. But if the finishing deserts them and the goaltending stays bad… uh oh. It is all in the hands of the PDO Gods now. Or the brains of Lindgren and Thompson, if you like.
Montreal Canadiens - Most likely to score the highlight reel goal of the playoffs
The Habs are in the playoffs against all odds, mostly because someone had to be the 8th team in the East, and their chances of making noise is not great. This team finished with a -20 goal differential and was consistently out-shot and out-chanced in their games, a mix of skilled young players who can’t yet defend and support pieces who just can’t cut it. Maybe Samuel Montembault stands on his head and they can pull a huge upset of Washington, but even that feels like a bit of a stretch.
So let’s celebrate what the Canadiens could give us during their likely brief appearance in these playoffs: some sick skill from their young guys. The top line of Nick Suzuki, Cole Caufield, and Juraj Slafkovsky is a really fun line of talented players who have carried this team into the playoffs. When they play with star D Lane Hutson, you see glimpses of a baby version of the Avalanche’s terrifying five-man Makar/MacKinnon unit. Those players are likely to give us some razzle dazzle, but the most likely candidate for the most wicked goal may be Russian phenom Ivan Demidov, who just showed up a few days ago to join the fun as a rookie. Demidov’s highlight reels from Russia are pornographic and he’s already done a couple filthy dekes in just two NHL games. I’m betting someone out of this young core gives us the goal of the playoffs in the first round.
Carolina Hurricanes - Most likely to play playoff games absolutely no one watches
Going to show myself out here, but is anyone besides fans of the Canes and Devils excited for that first round series? Are Devils fans even excited? The one thing you’ve been able to bank on in the playoffs in the last few years is Carolina playing a series that makes us wish Outdoor Life Network was still around in the US to hide playoff games from us. The past two seasons it was the Islanders and this year it’s a Devils team that is an injured husk of what should’ve been a dangerous opponent (see: next section). The Hurricanes don’t play the most skilled hockey to begin with, winning with their forecheck aggression, volume shooting, and defensive structure, but somehow they just keep getting matched up with opponents featuring as much or even less skill.
Out of the eight first round series, Carolina/New Jersey is the least engaging. If Carolina advances, which they definitely should, they will likely play Washington in a series that will also likely be the least engaging of the four second round series. The Metro’s three legit playoff teams are a top seed no one believes in, a Carolina team that feels like a lesser version of a team that’s routinely failed in the playoffs, and a battered and slumping third seed. Unfortunately for Canes fans, if you want us to watch your team, you’re going to have make the third round. And, you know, preferably draw Toronto in that round to get the most eyeballs.
New Jersey Devils - Most likely to lose a series due to no scoring
In late February, with the trade deadline approaching, New Jersey had a clear need at scoring forward, as their lines felt at least a forward or two short. Then they lost star center Jack Hughes for the season with injury, who drives the entire team’s offense. The team chose mostly to ignore their need at forward at the trade deadline, instead adding an aging third pair defenseman at the cost of a 2nd round pick(??) and with Hughes out of the lineup, the Devils’ goals per game slumped from 3.0 to 2.8. That mark would’ve been 24th out of 32 teams across a full season if it persisted.
As the playoffs are set to begin, it’s difficult to see this team scoring enough to win, up against a Carolina team that defends well in the first round. Especially when the team’s best offensive player sans Hughes, Jesper Bratt, had a poor playoffs last time around in 2023. Moreover, do we really trust a Sheldon Keefe coached team to score a lot in the playoffs? I guess the formula for New Jersey to make some noise is to play great defense, which they are capable of, and get strong goaltending en route to winning 2-1 or 3-2 in overtime. It’s a possibility, but not one I’m super optimistic about. If the Devils fall short, the cause of death on their autopsy will almost certainly be “unable to put the puck in the net”.
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Winnipeg Jets - Most likely to have a franchise legacy defining playoffs
From an NHL history lens, I’m not sure any franchise has as much on the line going into the playoffs as Winnipeg. The OG Jets played 17 seasons in the NHL and never made it past the second round (nor were they ever close). Then their team went away for 15 years and since landing the Thrashers, they have one third round appearance and no Stanley Cup Final appearances. There has been over 30 seasons of NHL hockey in Winnipeg now with no trips to the Cup Final.
If there was ever a year, it feels like this one. The Jets have been dominant wire-to-wire, winning 15 of their first 16 games and holding 1st place in league standings nearly continuously en route to the franchise’s first Presidents’ Trophy. Winnipeg has a dominant power play, elite defensive play at 5v5, and most importantly, the best regular season goalie of this era, Connor Hellebuyck, at the height of his powers. I could’ve dedicated this section to Hellebuyck’s legacy specifically, who desperately needs a deep run to cement him as one of he greatest goalies of all time. The Jets of this era have often leaned on Hellebuyck for a ton, but this year the defensive environment in front of him is terrific and their underlying metrics are the strongest they’ve been since 2017-18. That’s their one prior conference finals appearance.
So yeah, this should be THE year for Winnipeg. But also it has to be. This nucleus of players, Hellebuyck, Connor, Scheifele, Morrissey, Ehlers, are all in their late 20s or early 30s, with the clock ticking. The Jets are also an extreme small market franchise, with limited revenue that may hinder their ability to spend with the big dogs when the NHL salary cap begins to skyrocket this summer. We know their struggles attracting free agents. Their franchise also has constant murmurs of crisis if attendance dips and a run all the way could enshrine the Jets as a permanent institution in Winnipeg. Your author is 26 years old and it is quite possible this will be the best chance in my lifetime that the Jets will have to bring a Stanley Cup to Manitoba. So much is riding on this year for this franchise. No pressure.
St. Louis Blues - Most likely to inspire more offer sheets
This feels like a layup answer to me but come on, it has to be. One of my wrongest takes of the past few years in the NHL was that the Blues needed to do a full rebuild since their future looked quite bleak with long-term contracts committed to subpar aging defenseman. Unfortunately for me, I forgot to account for the “St. Louis acquires an under 25 years old 60+ point forward and an under 25 years old top four defenseman for the combined cost of a 2nd and 3rd round pick” scenario. That’s what happened when Edmonton’s bozo management refused to match offer sheets for Philip Broberg and Dylan Holloway last summer, gifting two players to St. Louis who immediately exploded into studs.
It’s almost certain that the home run success St. Louis had with the offer sheets will inspire more in the coming summers, even if it’s unlikely any will have the success that either Broberg or Holloway had, because 1.) Edmonton was caught off guard (won’t happen again) and 2.) it required the Oilers management to have a cognitive impairment (possible to happen again, but unlikely). The Broberg and Holloway offer sheets aren’t the only reason for St. Louis’ turnaround, as the savvy Cam Fowler trade has been a big win too to help restructure the Blues’ defense. I do have to give tons of credit for Doug Armstrong for this retool on the fly, which I didn’t think was possible. Frankly it shouldn’t have been, but because it happened the Blues just making the playoffs is likely to break the unwritten code about offer sheets. Any additional playoff wins will only further increase the probability we see more.
Dallas Stars - Most likely to disappoint in the playoffs
It feels like a few people in hockey media are starting to catch on that the Dallas Stars have sucked for six weeks now, but some are still considering Dallas a Tier A contender. At full strength, Dallas likely is but with Miro Heiskanen out for at least some (all?) of the first round, and now an injury to Jason Robertson, this team doesn’t look too intimidating. Since the start of March, Dallas ranks dead last in shot share at 5v5 (42.6%), 26th in shot attempts share at 5v5 (44.0%), and 29th in expected goals share at 5v5 (44.4%). Their numbers in all situations are no better and while they were able to outrun those metrics in the actual results for much of that stretch due to an elite power play and hot goaltending, it has cooled off recently.
But even without cooling off, it is very hard to survive being a ~44% possession team against a juggernaut like Colorado in the first round. If you let Colorado live in your end of the ice and own 60% of the shots and chances in a series, you’re going to need a herculean effort from your goaltending to survive. Could happen, as Jake Oettinger was nearly that herculean against Calgary three years ago in the first round. I wouldn’t bet on it. Without Heiskanen in the lineup, Dallas’ defense is not good enough for the deep run people are expecting and even if he comes back, will he be 100% being airdropped into the most intense hockey in the world? The Stars needed an easy first round draw to buy them time to get healthy and they didn’t get it against the Avs. I think the Stars’ stay in the playoffs may be a lot shorter than some are thinking.
Colorado Avalanche - Most likely to represent the West in the Stanley Cup Final
Here’s my other Stanley Cup Final pick!! Yes, I am forecasting a 2022 Stanley Cup Final rematch of Colorado and Tampa Bay, a rather risky prediction because both could go out in the first round given the caliber of their opening opponent. BUT, I think that Colorado and Tampa are the teams I like the most in terms of rest and roster construction. Like the Bolts, the Avs have had a couple of early exits the last two seasons to rest up and should have that advantage over Dallas, a team that has been to two straight Western Conference Finals (in addition to general health advantages).
The Avalanche are a wagon this year. I didn’t believe in the Avs in 2023 or 2024 because I never had any belief in Alexandar Georgiev in net. He’s gone, as Colorado fixed a major hole on their roster by getting Mackenzie Blackwood. Blackwood isn’t a proven winner in the playoffs, but he’s had a tremendous season and has changed the picture for the Avs. Since getting Blackwood, the Avalanche are 32-15-4, a 109 point pace.
Along the way, they swapped out Mikko Rantanen for Marty Nečas and Jack Drury, one of the boldest moves in eons in the NHL, and then went hard at the deadline by acquiring Ryan Lindgren on defense and Charlie Coyle/Brock Nelson at center, which has transformed their lineup of skaters. The Stars N Scrubs look to their line chart is gone in favor of real depth for the first time since the 2022 Cup. The Avsc closed the year 16-5-2 and are going to have the two best skaters (MacKinnon/Makar) in every series they play outside of a possible matchup with Edmonton. So long as Blackwood gives them good goaltending, I love the chances of Colorado playing into June (though they may need to still have the answer to the riddle of Connor Hellebuyck).
[Jerome Miron - Imagn Images]
Vegas Golden Knights - Most likely to be who we thought they were
Coming up with something for Vegas was difficult to me, so I went with a cop out and an opportunity to play one of the all time best sports clips: they are who we thought they were and WE LET ‘EM OFF THE HOOK! R.I.P. to Dennis Green for that one. It sums up my thoughts on Vegas, as no matter what we see from the Golden Knights in the playoffs, they are going to be who we thought they were. They have a legit shot to win the Stanley Cup. They could also lose in the first round. Either way, nothing that will happen is going to change my opinion of the Knights
The Knights are a great team and have been year after year since their expansion year. Their teams have oscillated in level of contender but they’ve made the playoffs in all but one season as an NHL team with the same formula. Vegas runs four quality lines that can score, has a big and strong defense that protects the net well, and they get (at the very least) solid goaltending. Sometimes the names change, Jonathan Marchessault out and Pavel Dorofeyev in, but the winning with the same look continues. I keep thinking eventually they will age out of contention, but the Knights will probably just trade for or sign the best prime-age players available on the market like always and keep the machine humming. Win or lose, there probably won’t be anything new to say about these guys and they’ll do it playing Golden Knights hockey.
Minnesota Wild - Most likely to make a Cinderella run
Most of the focus on an “upset” team who makes a run has been given to Ottawa and St. Louis, but I actually like Minnesota as a sneaky team. St. Louis is a good candidate, don’t get me wrong, but I wonder if they peaked too soon and extended all their energy just to make the playoffs. The Hamburglar Senators didn’t do much in the playoffs, you may recall. I also don’t love Ottawa’s chances of winning more than one round with the victor of the Battle of Florida waiting in round two.
Minnesota, though, is a quietly forgotten team. The long injury to Kirill Kaprizov killed a lot of momentum built up in the first half and other injuries intervened to dampen the mood. With Kaprizov in the lineup, the Wild are 25-13-3, a 106 point pace, and they controlled play decently well when he was playing. He’s now back healthy and after a few games to get his legs up to speed, I think Kaprizov could be dangerous in a playoff series against Vegas, where he figures to be the series’ best player.
I also love Zeev Buium as an X-Factor shot in the arm coming straight from Denver University, as a Wild defense chart with Buium, Faber, Spurgeon, Brodin, and Middleton is legitimately quite good. Yeah they lack scoring depth still, but Filip Gustavsson re-found his game since the start of March, with a .917 SV% and +6.07 GSAx in that span. Minnesota nearly upset Vegas four years ago in the playoffs and if they pull it this time, they have a legitimate path to the third round. They may do nothing (after all, that’s what the Minnesota Wild usually do in the playoffs) but I boldly think the Wild are the most likely wild card to reach the conference finals.
Los Angeles Kings - Most likely to receive the biggest bump in perception by winning a series
I racked my brain trying to think of a team that has more to gain from winning a first round series than LA but I can’t come up with one. Ottawa will receive a huge perception boost if they beat the Leafs, as we mentioned. Colorado and Tampa will emerge as Cup favorites if they get through their first round. The Leafs have made it through the first round once before so I don’t think they get any laurels for doing it a pitiful second time. But the Kings can totally change the perception of their team with a win in the first round.
This will be the fourth straight year that the Kings meet the Edmonton Oilers in the first round. The Oilers have won the first three and each year it’s gotten less competitive, from a tight seven game series in 2022, to six games in 2023, to a five game spanking in 2024. Even as LA has had a phenomenal regular season, no one takes them remotely seriously as a Cup contender because of that playoff history with Edmonton.
This year presents a great opportunity, as the Kings look the strongest they’ve been in the last four seasons and Edmonton comes in battered and out of sync. LA has home ice advantage too. Go win the damn series and suddenly people will realize that the Kings are an elite defensive team with a stellar goalie who has a Cup in his past and four strong lines to challenge you. There’s definitely a world where the Kings ride their goal prevention to a deep run but no one will believe in it happening… until they win the first round.
Edmonton Oilers - Most likely to enter a crisis offseason
Boy has it been a season for Edmonton, eh? They entered the season as Stanley Cup favorites after the consensus was that their team that fell one win short was even stronger. Instead, the Oilers saw their team get worse as the decision to swap out young, speedy depth players for older, slower veterans held them back and then a whirlwind of injuries leaves them in a murky situation. It looks like Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl are healthy for the playoffs, but Mattias Ekholm, arguably their most important defenseman, is out for the year.
Their goalies are Stuart Skinner and Calvin Pickard, who posted an .896 and .900, respectively. Goaltending nearly submarined Edmonton last year in the second round and that was a playoffs following a far stronger regular season from Skinner. Edmonton is an exceptional team when everything is clicking and they’re getting saves, but that hasn’t happened for a while and it’s hard to have a ton of faith that it will. The Oilers will start on the road against the best home team in the NHL, creating the serious possibility of an early exit.
In which case, if the Oilers do lose for once to LA in the first round, or even if they lose in the second round, it feels like this could be a messy offseason in the capital of Alberta. McDavid will be entering the last year of his contract and is eligible to extend July 1. I think he will extend, but what if he wants a shorter term deal to explore future options? Even if he signs for eight years, Draisaitl is now 29 and McDavid is 28. Zach Hyman turns 33 this summer, Mattias Ekholm turns 34, Darnell Nurse is 30, and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins is 32. Time is starting to dwindle on this core and if the Oilers don’t get it done this season, the pressure and scrutiny of this offseason after all the blunders of last summer will be turned up to the max in a way with no parallel.