It's Rumor O'Clock
Takes on the Detroit Pistons' offseason paths
Not much has changed with the Detroit Pistons since I wrote the end of season wrap-up a few weeks back, other than time has physically passed and thus, we are now much closer to things happening than we were previously. The 2026 NBA Draft is just one day away and free agency begins shortly thereafter. Moves are about to start happening.
If you’ve followed any of the reporting over the past week or so, you’ll have noticed one thing: the Pistons are being mentioned a lot. They are arguably one of the rumor mill’s most central characters, being linked to a whole buffet of players in free agency and the trade market. Today will be an offseason primer of sorts, covering the looming extensions for Jalen Duren and Ausar Thompson, needs that GM Trajan Langdon should be looking to address, NBA Draft options that I like, and all of these different trade/free agent targets. Whew. Got all that? Let’s go:
The Jalen Duren/Ausar Thompson Questions
Everyone knows that Cade Cunningham is the Detroit Pistons’ franchise player. Who the other “core” players are is more up for debate, depending on who you talk to. Before the playoffs, I don’t think there would’ve been any doubt from most Pistons fans that Jalen Duren and Ausar Thompson were the other two “core” players. Duren had made a substantial leap, being selected for the All-Star Game and 3rd Team All-NBA, while Thompson asserted himself as probably the NBA’s best wing defender and finished as a finalist for Defensive Player of the Year.
But we all know about the playoffs, how Duren’s stunning drop-off in play had many (including myself questioning his future with the team). Add Ausar Thompson’s enduring offensive limitations leading some to call for his departure and we arrive at the debate. These questions need answers on an uncomfortably quick basis because Duren is now a restricted free agent and Ausar is extension eligible too, one year out from RFA status. The Pistons have to make a call on Duren now no matter what and what you’re going to do with Ausar is obviously part of the math.
Starting with Duren, I was as frustrated as anyone with his play in the postseason but ultimately, I think you have to work out an extension. You just don’t boot a 22-year-old All-NBA player because of one bad playoffs. Multiple bad playoffs, sure, but I don’t think 2025’s playoffs was anything out of the norm for Duren. He played like the player he had been in that regular season, which was mediocre, with some strengths and clear weaknesses.
Duren is still young and his game has shown enough improvement that I think you have to give him a chance to grow. The possibility that Duren’s struggles in the playoffs were related to Detroit’s lack of spacing on offense is not lost on me. Could a more balanced lineup open up the paint for Duren to show more of the off-the-dribble self-creation we saw in the regular season? And I remain somewhat bullish on Duren’s long-term progress as a shooter. We’ve seen him take more 2-point jumpers and it doesn’t look bad. His free throw shooting is a positive indicator too.
The key about extending Duren remains the contract terms. Duren making All-NBA means he is eligible for a supermax deal but that is not a deal that the Pistons are forced to offer. As John Hollinger of The Athletic wrote recently, “even getting the lower max (five years, $239 million) coming off his rookie deal will be a challenge after the postseason he had”. That contract would carry an AAV of $47.8 M, which is still too high for me.
[NBA.com/Getty Images]
I have consistently felt that “the Pistons should leverage RFA status to reach an agreement”. Duren isn’t unrestricted and so there’s no risk of Detroit losing him without deciding they want to. Non-Detroit teams can offer Duren $177.4 M over 4 years, which has a slightly more manageable $44.35 M cap hit. The Pistons have the advantage of being able to offer 5 years, which could drive down the AAV some amount. If Jalen Duren feels he’s a $40 M player, he should go on the open market and see if he can land an offer sheet along the lines of that $177.4 M number.
If he does, the Pistons should match it. It will be hefty but crucially, you will know you’re paying market value because Duren literally found that number on the open market, presumably from a team with cap space like Brooklyn, Chicago, or the Lakers. I’d prefer Duren not to sign an offer sheet but rather come back to you with a prospective (un-signed) offer sheet, proving he’s being offered $40+ M AAV. At that point, I’d offer him five years and shave a few million off the AAV by offering more total dollars. In other words, if Brooklyn offers the 4/$177.4 number ($44.35 M AAV), I’d propose 5/$200 ($40 M AAV).
That’s the number that Hollinger projected as the sweet spot and it feels right to me. Again, it’s hefty, but the fact there are a number of teams interested in Duren this offseason, on the heels of that playoff, should decrease the risk. What you don’t want to do is sign Duren to a contract that becomes an untradeable anchor down the line. But if other teams are willing to pay him that now *and* he’s only 22, signing a 4 or 5 year deal at $40 M (while the cap keeps rising) shouldn’t become immovable later. Signing him to a supermax, with a ~$50-60 M cap hit, is a giant risk. But I don’t think this is.
I’m not sure that Duren is the perfect center for when the Pistons want to win a championship around Cade Cunningham. But I also don’t know that he isn’t and the upside is high enough that I want to see more. For now, keep trying lineups out with Duren in them and if in future seasons it becomes clear that he needs to be moved, so be it. You just can’t sign a contract now that becomes impossible to move later.
As for Ausar, I think it’s fairly cut and dry. He is such an exceptional defender and you have been better with him on the floor than without him since he joined the NBA. I would extend Ausar because even if he doesn’t get any better offensively, he will be worth it and all available statistics demonstrate that. However, I would extend Ausar now because I still hope he can improve as a finisher at the basket and as a ball-handler.
I have no hope he will ever become a perimeter shooter1 but if he can get better in those areas, on top of the defense, then the Pistons could be sitting pretty. The contract terms being discussed are pretty reasonable, with Keith Smith projecting 5 years, $135 M ($27 M AAV) and Bobby Marks projecting 5 years, $162 M ($32.4 M AAV). That’s not far off from other great defensive specialists like Jaden McDaniels ($26.2 M) and Dyson Daniels ($25 M). Ausar already being a DPOY finalist and a top 5 pick will bump it up some but I have no issue with that. Sign it now and hope he gets a bit better on offense.
[Brian Sevald/Getty]
A Brief Overview of Needs and Roster Picture
That is how I would navigate the Duren/Thompson situation and I think that Trajan Langdon’s approach won’t be too different. His press conference comments last week emphasized that he views Duren and Thompson are part of the “core”. So, if it’s established that Duren and Thompson will be staying, what else should Trajan be looking for?
Most Pistons fans have a pretty broad agreement about this, which is “all things offense”. Except the actual distinctions matter and I think drilling deeper is a good idea. To me, the offensive needs are three buckets:
Shooting/spacing
Offensive creation
Ball-handling
The former gets most of the attention for the obvious reason. The Pistons were iffy at shooting the 3 (35.6%, 20th) but more importantly, were very averse to taking them, finishing 29th out of 30 in 3PA/game. The team’s lack of interest in shooting 3s was painfully apparent in the playoffs and the spacing problems are related to this.
However, I think offensive creation gets ignored too much. The Pistons could add a stretch 4 who is a volume three point shooter and add a little more shooting pop off the bench, but if none of those players are creators, I don’t think as many problems will have been solved as many would think. The consensus seems to be that shooting ails the team among all else, but a lack of secondary creators was arguably more important in the playoffs.
The Pistons have Cade Cunningham and no one else who can run the offense. Jalen Duren showed growth as a creator in the regular season, but it was still somewhat rudimentary and it vanished in the playoffs. Tobias Harris can generate his own shot for himself, but isn’t much of a creator for others. Daniss Jenkins is a work in progress and that’s the end of even semi-viable offensive creators on this team. This aspect is majorly lacking for the Pistons.
Tangentially related to it is basic ball-handling skill, which Detroit also doesn’t have enough of. Ausar’s growth here would be huge because as it stands, there are few players you even trust to dribble the ball up the court. Game 7 against Orlando will always be stuck in my mind because of how the Pistons couldn’t even get the ball across half court in eight seconds if Cade wasn’t in the game to do it for them. That has to improve too.
If you watched the conference finals, the Knicks, Spurs, and Thunder all had more shooting, offensive creation, and ball-handling than the Pistons. The Pistons defend better than the Knicks and damn near as well as OKC/San Antonio, but the gap between the Pistons and those squads in these areas on offense was painfully large. All the offseason moves should be focused on closing the gaps in these areas, while maintaining the team’s defensive identity as much as possible.
As for the roster picture, the Pistons have the following:
Signed: Cade Cunningham, Isaiah Stewart, Caris LeVert, Duncan Robinson2, Ausar Thompson, Ron Holland II, Marcus Sasser, Paul Reed, Chaz Lanier, Daniss Jenkins (team option), Tolu Smith (team option)
RFAs: Jalen Duren
UFAs: Tobias Harris, Javonte Green, Kevin Heurter
The group of signed players, absent the cap holds applying to the free agents, is worth ~$133 M against a luxury tax line of $200 M and first apron of $209 M, giving Detroit plenty of room to work with. The Jalen Duren extension we projected will eat up a lot of that (the Thompson extension signed this summer wouldn’t begin until 2027-28), but there is money the Pistons can clear, with Caris LeVert’s $14.8 M AAV and Isaiah Stewart’s $15 M the most likely options.
The Pistons’ free agents besides Duren probably aren’t breaking the bank either, as I can’t imagine Heurter or Green would be receiving a sizable deal if they were to return to Detroit. As for Tobias, he is probably looking at something in the $20-25 M AAV over 2 years range, per John Hollinger. I tend to think he will be brought back. Detroit has the space to re-make this roster some amount… now let’s talk about how.
[Alabama Athletics]
Draft Targets
The Pistons hold a quietly consequential pick at 21st in Tuesday’s NBA Draft. That is, if they don’t trade the pick. For now, though, I am assuming Detroit will take the pick (or move up), a pick they got control of in the Jaden Ivey deal (a pick swap with Minnesota). The pick swap moved the Pistons up seven slots, from 28th to 21st, and that is a big jump.
While not a draft guru, I have looked over scouting reports and tape of most of the prospects being discussed in the range that the Pistons will be picking. As a general statement, I am surprised at how strong the options are and how much I like most of the names that have been bantered about (not common in past years). If the Pistons stay at 21, it seems that they could have the option to pick one of several guards, including Bennett Stirtz of Iowa, Labaron Philon Jr. of Alabama, Ebuka Okorie of Stanford, and Chrisian Anderson of Texas Tech.
Personally, I see the arguments for all four players. Stirtz is the savvy veteran and the old man of the bunch but I love his finishing numbers at the rim, as well as his crafty feel for the game. Okorie is a walking paint touch offering tons of upside despite his lack of size. Philon is a player I respect from his incredible performance against Michigan in the Sweet 16. He also lacks size but boasts the mix of rim finishing and perimeter shooting I like to see. Anderson has the same size, as well as athleticism, concerns, but is an exceptional three-point shooter. I would be fine with any of these four but I think I like Philon the most, followed by Stirtz and Okorie for the Pistons.
The other possible prospects are a little more varied in profile. I like Cameron Carr of Baylor as a potential 3&D sort of guy. He’s not there yet defensively but if he gets stronger, the mix of length, explosion, and shooting talent could be a great fit for this Pistons team. On the flip side, I don’t have a ton of interest in Dailyn Swain of Texas. This isn’t my commentary about the player’s chances of succeeding but more that I don’t know if the Pistons can take another player whose shooting is theoretical rather than real. Likewise, Chris Cenac Jr. of Houston is very developmental and probably farther away from NBA viable than I would prefer with this draft pick.
Allen Graves of Santa Clara is the sexy analytics draft pick of this class and the 1,000 ft. view of Graves as a possible stretch 4/5 with elite basketball IQ is exciting for the Pistons. On the other hand, it feels like he’s going to the draft too early and the lack of a sample against power conference competition spooks me a bit. I wouldn’t hate the selection but it would come with considerable risk. Duke’s Isaiah Evans is another good shooting wing prospect, though I’m concerned he’s a little too limited in his skillset beyond the shooting abilities.
I will admit that a trade up for Yaxel Lendeborg remains tantalizing to me. I’m not sure if I would be comfortable trading up to 10 or something if that’s what it takes. But there have been some rumors as of late that Yax may fall out of the lottery due to his age and subpar workouts. If Yax is there at 15 and it doesn’t cost a future first for the Pistons to move up… I think I do it.
This isn’t just me as a Michigan fan speaking. It’s more that a 6’9 guy with a 7’4 wingspan who can handle the ball, shoot the three, and defend at a high level is pretty much the dream future PF between Ausar and Duren. The fit makes so much sense and his old age, while a negative for some (rebuilding) teams, is a plus for a team like the Pistons trying to win now because he’s more NBA ready. I’d think look and hard about the possibility if it arises.
Altogether, I think Trajan Langdon is in a good spot. I would be trying to keep this pick as much as I can (I’d much rather trade a 2027 1st, which is likelier to be in the late 20s) because a cheap rotational player could be very useful when this roster gets expensive. If you walk out of the draft with a guard or wing that can add shooting or playmaking, be it Stirtz or Carr or Okorie or Philon or god forbid, Lendeborg, I will be pleased.
[NBA.com]
All the UFA/Trade Names Fit To Print
Though the 21st pick figures to be some piece of the puzzle for next season’s roster, most of the heavy lifting in re-shaping the Detroit Pistons will be done in the trade market and free agency. It seems likely that the Pistons are going to make some sort of move, but what that move will be, I don’t know.
The name that has generated by far the most buzz has been Tyler Herro of the Miami Heat, as reports linking the Pistons to Herro have swirled all weekend, as part of a multi-team Giannis Antetokounmpo trade. To say this idea has polarized the fanbase would be an understatement. Reasonably so, I’d say, because there are both obvious reasons why Detroit would want Herro and some pretty obvious red flags.
The argument in favor of a Herro trade is he addresses the shooting/spacing/creation buckets I brought up. His 2024-25 All-Star season needs no elaboration in terms of why it would be attractive beyond stating his statine: 23.9 PPG, 5.5 APG, 5.2 RPG, 2.6 TOV, .472/.375/.878, 60.5% TS, 28% USG, with PER/BPM/VORP numbers all inside the top 40 that season. That version of Herro would be by far the best offensive player Cade Cunningham has ever played with. Even looking beyond that season, Herro has been an excellent shooter every year of his NBA career, a prolific and efficient scorer who can create some offense too.3 I think he could be a beautiful fit next to Cade on offense and it could give an interesting window into a different version of this team, roster construction-wise.
The downsides are three-fold. For one, Herro is a bad defender. There are no two ways around it, though some disagree on whether his defense is “bad, but manageable” or “catastrophic”. Herro risks jeopardizing some of Detroit’s defensive identity, as much as he would help the offense. Secondly, Herro is often injured, having played only 33 games this past season and 42 two years prior. The All-Star season saw him play 77 games, but the injury issues are concerning. Thirdly, Herro’s playoff performances have been underwhelming to say the least, with a consistent drop-off in his scoring from the regular season to the playoffs.
For me, this one comes down to price. Herro has only one year remaining on his contract and it’s far from a sure thing that he would work out as a core piece in Detroit. If the Pistons can saunter in and scoop Herro up on the cheap, because Miami is desperate to get a deal for Giannis done, I like the idea of bringing Herro in to take a look at what that fit with Cade and this team looks like. But you cannot give up too much for a player who could leave after one year and who has risks attached.
The reality is that the Pistons aren’t operating from a huge surplus of picks and young players like OKC or the Spurs. There are limited bullets in the chamber and I don’t like using up too many of them on a gamble like Herro. But if it’s just matching salary + a protected future first or some 2nds, then sure. Let’s give it a shot, because the upside of Herro is worth experimenting with to me. I’m not 100% sold on Herro but I’d give it a shot at the right price because it would be something new.
The other name most frequently connected to the Pistons in recent weeks remains Trey Murphy III of New Orleans, which feels like old news at this point. As a matter of fact, I covered Murphy in my trade deadline preview:
Most Pistons fans’ dream acquisition, Murphy is a 25-year-old 6’8 wing with an elite shooting track record and has proven himself a capable volume scorer leading the Pelicans the last few years. Trajan Langdon drafted Murphy in New Orleans so the connection is obvious. I don’t know enough about Murphy’s defense admittedly but the Pistons have such a surplus of wing defenders I think they could insulate him well enough if it’s an issue. The contract is also an asset, in year #1 of a very affordable deal. The only drawback is that the acquisition price could be vast
Murphy helps the shooting and spacing problems, but isn’t enough of a creator for me to want to pay top dollar for him. Like Herro, it’s all about the price. One has to wonder if Isaiah Stewart could be part of a deal for Murphy considering New Orleans is now run by the man who drafted and extended Stew in Detroit, Troy Weaver.
Zach LaVine’s name came up in a report recently, which I could have interest in if he were bought out by Sacramento and brought in as a free agent. So long as he remains on that current contract, no thank you. A different rumor said that the Pistons will pursue Austin Reaves in free agency but I’m skeptical of how Detroit would create the cap room for that. It feels like it would have to be a Duren for Reaves trade which is spicy, but seems unrealistic. I would actually think seriously about that deal because I value Reaves as a player. But again, feels like a longshot.
Kyrie Irving is a name some have liked in a similar vein to Herro. Just like Herro, there’s a logical fit in terms of shooting and spacing, doubly so for ball-handling and creation. The issue for me is Kyrie is 34 and coming off an ACL injury. How much is still in the tank? I don’t think you can give up too much for him given those circumstances and it sounds like the new Dallas brain trust prefers to keep Kyrie. (I had some interest in CJ McCollum in this bucket, but he re-signed in Atlanta).
For the PF position, John Collins’ name has circulated and that’s one I do like, as it could provide more shooting from the 3-point line than Tobias Harris offers. If Collins hits free agency, it’s possible you could fit him into the non-tax MLE, which I would like. Similarly, I have been a fan of the idea of Isaiah Joe from OKC, who may be squeezed out amid the logjam that the Thunder have. A dead-eye 3-point gunner and also a strong defender, Joe seems like a great bench piece to me at an affordable price (Lu Dort is in the same category).
Kawhi Leonard is the perfect pipe dream fit for this team as someone who shoots, handles the ball, and defends. But Kawhi’s injury issues combined with possible suspensions due to the salary cap circumvention scandal make me hesitant.4 Coby White is a name I like as a bench shooter/ball-handler but I don’t think Charlotte is going to let him leave the Queen City in free agency. Finally, Michael Porter Jr. remains on the board from the deadline and the fit remains logical as a shooting four with good efficiency but the new lottery rules give Brooklyn no incentive to tank next year and trade their best player.
[Clarence Tabb Jr./Detroit News]
Summary
There are a lot of different directions that this offseason could unfold for the Pistons. Whether they keep pick 21, move up, or trade it, is one question. Who they select with that pick is another. And how does that new rookie fit alongside whatever moves are made in free agency or trades? We assume Thompson and Duren will be extended, but at what prices? There are a lot of balls in the air and you could probably make 5-10 different versions of how things will go for the Pistons in the next two weeks.
At the end of the day, I’m not too stressed about what happens as long as the end result follows two principles: 1.) the players you’ve added need to address the needs I laid out at the start of the piece and 2.) you haven’t given up an exorbitant amount relative to the player’s caliber. In other words, I’m not reflexively against trading first round picks, Ron Holland, or other players, but if you trade them, it needs to be for a real coup, not a player who is merely okay or won’t be here for the long-haul. And those players need to check boxes in terms of shooting, ball-handling, and creation.
Trajan Langdon has done well operating on the margins. He’s held onto the core gifted to him by Troy Weaver’s tanking and has greatly improved the conditions around those players. The situation surrounding Cade, Ausar, and Duren was disastrous when Langdon was hired due to Weaver’s incompetence. Trajan has done very efficient work in rapidly improving the team around the nucleus, adding Tobias Harris as a trusty veteran and swinging low-cost moves like Dennis Schröder, Malik Beasley, Tim Hardaway Jr., Duncan Robinson, Javonte Green, and Daniss Jenkins. That has made the team much better, facilitating the growth of Detroit’s core.
But now comes the more difficult work. The possibility of moving out more “core-ish” players like Holland or Isaiah Stewart, as well as trading first round picks. Langdon hasn’t done that yet, so this will be a test of his might. I’ve agreed with most of what Trajan has done so far and I think he’s been level-headed and honest about where the team is. But that approach has made it clear what the Pistons need more of and now it’s up to Trajan Langdon to add that to Detroit’s mix.
the odds Duren will be a 3 point shooter are higher than Ausar IMO, going off free throw clips and the eye test of their shot mechanics
Non-guaranteed
Herro has averaged 4.7 APG over the past four seasons, which is 1.6 higher than any non-Daniss Piston from the 2025-26 season
Also would Kawhi have any interest in Detroit? This is a guy who walked away from a Raptors team that could’ve gone back-to-back to go play in his home of SoCal. Does he really want to leave SoCal for Detroit?