During a Detroit Lions season that has been about crushing barriers and destroying annoying TV infographics, accomplishing things this franchise had never done in my lifetime, I’ve written five reaction pieces on this blog. I wrote one after the Lions stole the national spotlight by beating Kansas City in week one, basically reacting with “holy cow!!”. I wrote one after Lions fans invaded a pair of road stadiums and the team was 5-1, reacting with “this team might actually be pretty good”. The third one came after the Saturday night victory over Denver, updating my takes and setting the stage for the stretch run.
The latter two were the true reaction pieces, reacting to the Lions winning the NFC North and winning a playoff game, pieces 30 and 32 years in the making, respectively. These were the moments I had waited a long time to react to and write about. Winning the division? I’d been thinking about that since 2013 and that wait is what the narrative of the piece was about. Winning a playoff game? I’d been thinking about that since the day the flag was picked up in Dallas nine years ago.
When I sat down to write those pieces, I knew what I wanted to say. The frustrating wait gave me lots of time to think about what I’d say in those situations. Writing those flowed easily, just a matter of getting the piece exactly right. But there was never a second of writer’s block, wondering what the main idea of the piece would be.
When I sat down to write on the evening of January 21, 2024, after the Detroit Lions won their second playoff game of the postseason 31-23 over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to advance to the NFC Championship Game, I had no idea what to say. No real ideas and certainly no pre-written narrative in my brain. No title for the piece either. Why? Because never, for one moment in my life, did I think we would be here. With the Lions one win– 60 minutes– from the Super Bowl.
[Jose Juarez/AP]
I know it’s a bit of an odd thing to write when I wrote just last week about the resetting of expectations that the Lions fanbase needs to undergo now that this previously hopeless, loser football franchise is a Serious Football Team. I also wrote in that piece about how I thought the Lions were more likely than not to beat the Buccaneers. You, the uninformed observer, might think there’s a contradiction. You would be wrong because there’s a difference between speaking rationally and emotionally.
Rationally I said to reset expectations and that the Lions should beat the Bucs. Emotionally I did not believe it would happen. Emotionally it is hard to throw away a lifetime of experiences which tell you to fear a letdown/trap game and adapt your brain to be retrofit for only reason and logic. Emotionally you need to see it happen to believe the Detroit Lions won two playoff games in a single playoffs and are playing in the NFC Championship Game.
I now believe it is real. I believe that when my eyes are closed, the world's still there. I believe that I woke up this morning and it is not a dream. I believe we are living in reality and that reality includes the Detroit Lions winning that game on Sunday afternoon. I believe that the Lions are playing in Santa Clara, California this coming Sunday night against the San Francisco 49ers in the NFC Championship Game.
I described the Lions’ win in Minnesota on Christmas Eve to clinch the NFC North as a final battle with the S.O.L, demons, but this game might have been that truly. There were multiple moments in this game where it seemed like everything might crumble, as they so often have with this football team over its preceding six decades. For example, the disastrous end to the first half, when the Lions went from up 10-3 with the ball at midfield facing 3rd & 1 to tied 10-10 at halftime in the span of just two minutes. Considering that the Bucs got the ball out of halftime, that sequence was crushing. But it didn’t phase these Lions.
Next there was a sequence in the early 4th quarter, when the Lions were leading 17-10. Tampa had driven into Lions territory but on second down, Tyson Alualu brought Baker Mayfield down as he was trying to throw the ball away. The referees ruled it incomplete, but on replay Mayfield’s calf/shin was clearly touching the ground with the ball in his hand. If the Lions challenge, it’s 3rd & 21 from the Detroit 23. If they don’t, it’s 3rd & 10 from the 12. The Bucs ran the playclock all the way down, giving the Lions plenty of time to challenge, but the video coaches didn’t catch it and Dan Campbell didn’t throw the challenge flag. On the ensuing play, DC Aaron Glenn telegraphed his blitz too easily and Tampa Bay checked into the perfect blitz-beater, a screen to Rachaad White, who rumbled into the end zone for a game-tying TD. A brutal swing of events, but again, it didn’t phase these Lions.
Then there was the final set of moments, when the Lions were trying to put it away. Up 31-17 in the fourth quarter, they had the Bucs staring down 4th & 14 with 5:37 left. One more stop and the game is basically over. The Lions got home with the blitz but didn’t have anyone keeping contain on the right side of the pocket, allowing Mayfield to throw and find an open Mike Evans for a first down. Four plays later, the Bucs had scored a TD to stay alive. So close, but not done yet. It didn’t dissuade these Lions.
Tampa Bay went for two trying to put themselves in position to win in regulation with another TD. Baker looked for Evans in the end zone, an underthrown ball vs. Ifeatu Melifonwu. Melifonwu didn’t make much contact with Evans but you never really know with underthrown balls. From a cosmic justice sense, the Lions couldn’t get hit with a DPI there if they didn’t get the benefit of it on a very similar play against the Cowboys all those years ago. But cosmic justice seldom exists with the Lions, always getting screwed. This time it did exist, and the referee kept the flag in his belt.
After that, the Lions drove into Tampa Bay territory, needing one first down to win the game. They couldn’t come up with it and punted it back to the Bucs, needing a defensive stand (either to deny a TD or stop a 2 point conversion), from a rather leaky defense, to win the game. Yet again, doom seemed quite possible and the black rain clouds were forming in our heads, imagining how this would be the most devastating playoff defeat yet. Instead, on the 2nd play of the Tampa drive, Derrick Barnes made a leaping, athletic play that will live in Lions lore forever:
No heartbreaking collapse. No S.O.L. Just good vibes. That’s these 2023-24 Detroit Lions.
Before the game started, NBC ran an intro video narrated by Jeff Daniels that featured both the 66-year season ticket holder and the fan crying in the stands who were shown during the broadcast of the Rams game. The end of it paid some respect to Baker Mayfield and his journey but this intro was all about the Lions. From the opening line “I’ve been a Lions fan for at least 75 years and I will be a Lions fan for the rest of my life”, it was special. By the time we found out that the fan crying in the crowd buried his father in a Lions jacket, Lions diehards had tears in their eyes.
Ford Field didn’t force delay of game penalties or burned timeouts this week, but perhaps the noise and the frenzy helped propel the usually automatic Chase McLaughlin to miss a 50 yarder in the second quarter. What is clear is the environment was impeccable again. From the rally towel shots when the game kicked off, to the fan videos of the crowd erupting after the Barnes interception, to the scenes outside the stadium after the game it was another electric, hair-raising crowd.
As Nick Baumgardner so beautifully put it in his piece at The Athletic, “perhaps, a romantic might hope, the fans were loud enough for those who are no longer with us to feel the thing they wanted so badly but never got to witness”. Five or ten minutes after the game ended, from the shots on TV it seemed that not a single person had left the stands yet, screaming and celebrating. Also on TV, it seemed that not a single fan in Tampa Bay garb was anywhere among the 66,201.
A friend texted me on Sunday that he had never seen downtown East Lansing so hyped for a Detroit Lions game. Anecdotally, more people who don’t care much about football that I know on social media have been posting about the Lions (or any football team) than I can ever remember over the last few weeks. On Monday morning, the Detroit Free Press’ entire front page was Detroit Lions. No “Ron DeSantis drops out of the race for president”. No local crime news. No economic news. No state legislative news. All Detroit Lions. On this Sunday, it felt like the only important thing in Michigan was the Detroit Lions. And it will feel like that again next Sunday.
The one thing I did believe about this moment I never thought would come was that if this state ever believed the Lions had a shot to make the Super Bowl, it would be a scene beyond belief. Turns out, I was right about that. Yet somehow, I didn’t even imagine it would taste this sweet.
I don’t know how much longer this ride will last. The NFC Championship Game certainly won’t be easy, facing a 49ers team that has been better (and more well-rounded) than the Lions throughout the season. They’re an underdog for sure, but so was Joe Burrow and Cincinnati at Kansas City in 2021-22. So were the New York Giants in Super Bowl XLII against the undefeated Patriots. You gotta play the games for a reason.
What I do know is that no matter what happens on Sunday in California, I’m proud of this team and I’m glad this ride happened. I’m glad we got this. I don’t think anyone in early December 2021, when the Lions were 0-10-1 in Dan Campbell’s first season, or even early November 2022, when the Lions were 1-6 in Campbell’s second season, would have believed that in the 2023-24 season the Lions would be playing for a trip to the Super Bowl. Even coming into this year, with the heightened expectations after 2022’s close, no one expected the Lions to be in the NFC Championship Game. Not this early in the franchise’s life cycle, so soon after rock bottom of a rebuild, with a defense that is still a rag-tag bunch. I expected a division title in what I believed would be a weak division (I wasn’t really correct about that), but I didn’t expect this.
It’s your instinct when you have a young team and a modest amount of playoff success to say “we’ll be back”. It’s easy to believe then and sometimes it’s true. Packers fans are saying it now after their defeat on Saturday night and Lions fans would’ve been saying the same if they lost to the Bucs. But none of us really know if it’ll be true or not. Football is an unpredictable game. It’s also a brutal, violent game where injuries are common. You never know what impediment, be it a medical ailment, a salary cap problem, or just rotten luck, could derail the future. All you know is the now. It’s why facing the Bucs at home in the divisional round felt like such an opportunity that the Lions had to take advantage of. You never know if you’re going to be back, no matter how logical or rational it is to believe you will be.
I’m glad the Lions took the opportunity. I’m glad that I get to see my team play on Conference Championship Sunday for once. And I’m glad Lions fans across Michigan and the entire world get to share this week together.
[Getty Images]
The Takes: Offense
More like Goffense, amirite? What else can you really say about the way Jared Goff played against Tampa Bay? He was phenomenal, shaking off a slowish start to be a killer for the rest of the game. His 4th quarter effort in particular was masterful and he has now played the best two playoff games of his career the last two weeks. Yes he’s had one “yikes!” play each of he last two weeks (the bizarre lateral attempt last week and the near-interception in the end zone this week) but there’s been very little to complain about otherwise. And he’s been doing the thing no one after he left LA believed was possible: winning his team playoff games, not merely being carried by the rest of the team.
I charted Goff’s performance against Tampa and had him down for +30/-8 with two neutral events and four screens. He had just the one turnover worthy throw to three balls I rated as dead-on, elite throws. Goff didn’t have to make a lot of them, but the TD to Amon-Ra St. Brown might be the best throw he’s made as a Lion in one of the biggest moments. The drive of Detroit’s first TD was also probably Goff’s best as a Lion, getting no help from the rushing game but uncorking accurate ball after accurate ball to lead the offense down the field. Goff was looking off defenders and then fitting balls into windows and shouldering pressure with ease. The 3rd & 4 throw to Sam LaPorta, launching a missile a second before being hit that was perfectly placed into the TE’s catch radius, was the kind of ball that made me go “ohhhhh”.
Goff is now 52/70 (74.3% completion) for 564 yards (8.1 Y/A) with 3 TDs and 0 INTs in the playoffs. That’s a 111.8 passer rating and most importantly, he’s 2-0 in the playoffs. The only other time he won two playoff games in a season was the 2018-19 campaign and over those two wins for the Rams, his passer rating was 79.5. Goff’s current level of play is a career best and that’s not really disputable right now.
Jahmyr Gibbs’ TD run will live in Lions lore. I said that about Barnes’ interception, but it’s the case here too. It can’t be the best Lion playoff run of the Super Bowl era because Barry Sanders against Dallas exists, but it was beautiful. A massive hole was opened by Graham Glasgow and Frank Ragnow up front and Taylor Decker getting to the second level and then just like Barry, Gibbs had one guy he was responsible for deleting on his own. A quick little cut and then jets coming on like few other players in the NFL have. Gibbs also had a tremendous blitz pick-up that allowed Goff to connect with St. Brown on a 3rd down, showing off a part of the game Gibbs hasn’t been as strong at (pass protection). He’s still just scratching the surface of how good he can be at age 21 and the Lions have him for four more seasons after this one on a rookie contract.
Frank Ragnow, the warrior. The third thing from this game that will live in Lions lore is the effort of Frank Ragnow, who sprained his knee after being rolled up on and continued to play at a high level. Going up against some very good defensive tackles in the trenches, Ragnow shrugged off the screaming pain and stood Vita Vea up on Craig Reynolds’ 4th & Goal TD run, helping to create just enough room. Ragnow, in addition to the tackles Taylor Decker and Penei Sewell, were the heroes on Sunday but only Ragnow did it in that physical condition. We’ve known that he is a tremendous football player for a while but this game was something special.
Offense eventually won the game. At halftime my main storyline was the offense not doing enough, as the Lions had only 10 points on something like 140 yards at <4.0 YPP. They were gifted a field goal off great field position, but had gone punt, FG (short field), TD, punt, punt in the first half. Did not feel like that was going to be enough and indeed it wouldn’t have been. Luckily the offense turned it on. In the second half they went punt, TD, TD, TD, and a 30 yard drive ending in a punt.
Diving into the details, I don’t find myself terribly upset about the performance of the offense. The bottom line, 31 points and 391 yards at 5.5 YPP against a pretty respectable defense, is satisfactory and it could’ve been even better. If you look at the five punts, one drive was just a dud (the first one) but then the other four ended on 1.) an uncharacteristic drop by St. Brown, 2.) a sack allowed by Glasgow on a play where multiple receivers were open if Goff had more than one second, 3.) a questionable chop block penalty, and 4.) too fancy play-calling from Ben Johnson on the edge of FG range. Small, individual breakdowns killed drives that were otherwise set up to succeed. The process was very good, just some sloppy execution issues from a few players and the play-caller (in one case).
Okay Ben Johnson game? I was mostly fine with the play-calling in this one. It was a bit odd how the Lions abandoned the run game in the second quarter, rather than dip deeper into the bag to find something to challenge the elite Tampa run defense. When they went back to it in the second half, they found traction so I feel like going away from the run was a minor mistake. It felt like they got a bit cute in some high leverage moments, 2nd & G and 3rd & G preceding the Reynolds TD being the notable examples as well as the screens cooked up on the final offensive drive. However, bringing the Brock Wright TE delay/leak play that won them the Jets game back out of garage was tremendous. Some ups and downs but a decent game from Johnson I thought.
[Lon Horwedel/USA Today]
The Takes: Defense
Hurrah for Aaron Glenn. I have been publicly hard on Aaron Glenn at times because Detroit’s defensive results during his tenure as defensive coordinator have been ugly at times. But Glenn’s gameplans down the stretch run of the season have been terrific, dating back to the Denver game. They did a great job against the Cowboys in Dallas and have now done enough in back to back weeks to win two playoff games. This game in particular was a masterful showing from Glenn’s bend-not-break defense. It did have some ugly moments and he got a bit too predictable on Tampa’s second TD, but Glenn schemed pressure for the Lions to kill drives with high leverage plays, be it sacks, TFLs, or turnovers. It’s not always pretty but his defenses keep finding ways to hold opponents in the low 20s and normally, with this team’s offense, that’s enough to win.
More encouraging than it seemed? Drive chart for Tampa was INT, FG, punt (3&out), missed FG, TD, punt, punt (3&out), TD, punt (3&out), TD, INT. So 11 drives, four punts with three 3&outs and two turnovers. Of the five other drives, the Lions were pretty close to getting off the field on a lot of them.
FG drive = 3rd & 2 from Tampa 33, Mayfield targets Mike Evans against very good coverage from Ifeatu Melifonwu, who plays the ball well but Evans hangs on.
Missed FG = 3rd & 7 from Tampa 39, Mayfield dumps it off to Rachaad White and Cam Sutton and Alex Anzalone both blow tackles that would’ve forced 4th down
TD #1 = 3rd & 1 from Tampa 28, Romeo Okwara in position to stop a Baker zone read but doesn’t make the tackle
TD #2 = Alualu sack that is incorrectly called and Lions don’t challenge. A correct call and it’s 3rd & 21 and likely force a FG instead of the TD.
TD #3 = Lions have Bucs in 4th & 14 from Tampa 32, pressure comes but they don’t get the sack and Mayfield finds Evans.
You don’t expect to get stops on all of those, but let’s say Campbell challenges the Mayfield sack and the Lions force a FG there and they make one more play to stop the 4th & 14, you’re looking at ~320 yards and only 13 points against. The Lions’ defense still needs to get better and you don’t get credit for almost succeeding in high-leverage moments, but compared to points in this season when it felt like the Detroit defense was a hopeless mess, they’ve been getting closer. Players are increasingly in positions to succeed and just are not quite coming through, be it tough catches against or blown tackles. But I’d rather feel like the defense is on the cusp than it’s in utter shambles.
Coverage was alright, other than Cam Sutton. There were a couple zone busts, one on the Trey Palmer catch and one on a Cade Otton seam route, but those were limited. Coverage from the safeties and Kindle Vildor was alright, I thought, forcing Baker Mayfield and his receivers to make some high level throws and catches, which they did do a decent amount (Baker had a nice game in my opinion). The only weak spot was again CB Cameron Sutton, who continues to get picked on by opposing WR1s. Sutton is a very effective corner on shorter and intermediate throws (he had a great PBU in that range in this one) but is extremely vulnerable down the field.
My theory on Sutton is that he’s lost all his confidence having to go up against elite receivers week after week, because he was not this bad in the first half of the season. Right now it’s a massive liability and the most obvious need to shore up in the offseason. The Bucs were 7/10 for 147 yards when targeting Sutton and 19/28 for 202 yards when targeting any other Lions defender.
What was up with the run defense? Coming into this game I was expecting the Tampa run game to be bottled up, as the Bucs had one of the worst rushing attacks and the Lions boasted one of the best rushing defenses. It’s what happened in the first meeting between the two teams. Instead, Tampa Bay’s RBs ran the ball 13 times for 74 yards (5.7 YPC). They didn’t stick with it and thus the total yardage isn’t impressive, but the per-carry clip is startling. The Bucs ripped off a handful of 7-12 yard runs, which I was not expecting at all and was what I was most interested in examining on re-watch.
After further review, I thought the defensive tackles and linebackers both had subpar games in run defense relative to the mean, DTs pushed around in the trenches more than normal and then the LBs who are usually huge cogs in the run defense, weren’t fitting it all that well. Playing two high with lighter boxes left the Lions vulnerable to some degree but I thought the bigger story was players who are usually good having off-nights. It happens, but will need to be better against San Francisco.
Special Teams and Game Theory
Another good Jack Fox game. Not too much to say here but through two playoff games, Jack Fox has been money. Long, arcing kicks that haven’t allowed any returns of consequence and he’s been consistently pinning the opposition deep. If the Bucs don’t have to go 90 yards in two minutes, is Baker Mayfield desperate enough to attempt the throw that Barnes intercepted? Something to think about.
Always defer the kickoff. I know Dan Campbell wanted to get the home crowd behind them and establish an early lead but if you win the coin toss like Campbell did, I’m a firm believer in always deferring. The possibility of using the middle eight to double up the opponent on possessions is such a huge edge to me and if you take the ball first and don’t score (as the Lions didn’t), suddenly you’re digging out of a hole from a possessions standpoint a minute into the game.
What the hell happened at the end of the game? I, along with many people, was deeply confused why A) the Buccaneers didn’t use their last remaining timeout after the interception and B) the Lions started kneeling it down as if the Bucs didn’t have a timeout. My conclusion at the time was that the TV must’ve been wrong and Tampa didn’t have a timeout but no, they did. Refreshing our minds, the Lions got the ball after the INT with 1:33 left and Tampa had one TO remaining. If the Lions ran the ball three times (plays that take 5-6 seconds each), they would’ve been able to run the clock out even if Todd Bowles used his timeout. That’s what I assumed was going to happen after the interception, three inside zone runs to David Montgomery who holds onto the ball like it’s his child while Bowles uses the timeout. Instead, neither did.
As Bowles explains it, he felt the game was over because even if he used his timeout and forced the Lions to kick, they were going to make the FG and end the game and he didn’t want to prolong a game that was already decided. I get the idea of “when you’ve lost, you’ve lost”, but you should still use the TO just to force the Lions to run three plays and hey, maybe there’s a 0.01% chance a fumble happens.
On the flip side, the Lions’ decision to kneel it down seemed to suggest that they didn’t realize that the Bucs had a timeout? Because going straight to kneel downs is not sound logic in that situation. The Lions needed to run enough clock to end the game and kneel downs don’t take long enough to get there assuming Tampa was going to use a timeout. Moreover, the fact they weren’t even milking the full 40 off the playclock before each kneel down seems to reinforce the notion that the Lions forgot Tampa had a timeout.
Once the Lions started kneeling it down, doing so in such reckless manner from a time standpoint, the fact that Bowles didn’t use his timeout is even crazier. After the Lions’ third kneel down, he could’ve called a TO with 37 seconds left. The ball was at the Bucs’ 31, so Michael Badgley would’ve been attempting a 48-49 yard FG. Anyone who knows the Lions’ kicking situation would know that’s far from a sure thing, even indoors. If he misses, Tampa has new life and a chance to tie the game. So in summary, my best guess on what happened in that end of game sequence is Detroit forgot Tampa had a timeout and Todd Bowles got in his feels and zoned out to such an extent that he forgot the game wasn’t over and his team still had a non-zero chance due to what Detroit was doing. Deeply bizarre, dueling incompetence.
[Raj Mehta/USA Today]
The Road Ahead
So here we are, the Detroit Lions are headed to the NFC Championship Game to take on the (to this point) undisputed best team in the NFC. The Niners have been the top dog in the conference pretty much wire to wire, a small dip in the middle of the season due to injuries but their resume is incomparable. They beat the 2nd seeded Cowboys in a romp, beat the 4th seeded Buccaneers by a solid margin, beat the 5th seeded Eagles in a romp, beat the 6th seeded Rams (when both teams played their starters) by seven, and then edged the 7th seeded Packers in a tight one on Saturday. They’ve beaten every other NFC playoff team but the Lions. To go to the Super Bowl, you’ve gotta beat the top dog.
Here’s the good news: compared to 1991-92, Detroit’s only other Super Bowl Era appearance in this round of the playoffs, the team they’re facing is probably not going to be remembered as one of the best teams of all time. The ‘91 Redskins went 14-2 and won every playoff game by double digits. The Niners, by comparison, are a very good team but not invincible. They went 12-4 when their starters played and on Saturday night were lucky to survive against a hot Green Bay team. That alone makes them pretty clearly not as good as the ‘91 Redskins and gives the Lions a better shot than last time.
The Packers had the Niners on the ropes and honestly, should have won that game. You can highlight four different moments in that game and if you flip around any of them, Green Bay wins. If GB doesn’t kick two red zone field goals and gets TDs instead, they win. If GB doesn’t get stopped on a QB sneak in the red zone and come up empty on that possession, they win. If GB catches any of the multiple interceptable balls Brock Purdy threw to a defender, including one that was an easy pick-six, they win the game. If Anders Carlson doesn’t miss the 41 yard FG, GB probably wins (that one is more up in the air, but it would’ve helped). The Packers, a team that I view in the same ballpark as the Lions (based on their late-season surge), had San Francisco beaten but let them off the hook. There’s a path here for Detroit.
But it’s not an easy path and a lot changes week-to-week. The biggest story to follow is the health of hybrid WR Deebo Samuel, whose availability has corresponded directly with SF’s success. When he’s healthy, the Niners look like a juggernaut. When he’s not, the Niners look awfully mortal. San Francisco believes that Samuel is “50-50” to play on Sunday (and who knows how healthy he’ll be if he does suit up). The status of Samuel will be fiercely observed this week leading up to the game.
On offense, the Niners are a multi-faceted beast that will give Detroit’s defense plenty of problems. WR Brandon Aiyuk is one of the best receivers in the NFL and will be another headache for Sutton to deal with. Samuel, if he’s playing, will line up wide quite a bit like Aiyuk, but is more of a short stuff playmaker. He also lines up in the backfield and got 37 carries in the regular season. TE George Kittle is the only TE in the NFL that All-Pro voters deemed better than Sam LaPorta this season and is one of the best of the best. RB Christian McCaffrey is probably a future HOFer and the most devastating dual threat rushing and receiving weapon in the NFL.
The weapons are elite and the OL is anchored by LT Trent Williams, an 11x Pro Bowler and another future HOFer. The other pieces on the OL aren’t quite as strong and have some vulnerabilities, but it’s a pretty good line. The biggest question is QB Brock Purdy, a second-year player not long removed from being the last player taken in the 2022 NFL Draft, Mr. Irrelevant as they call him. Purdy’s counting stats and analytics (particularly efficiency metrics) deem him one of the best QBs in the league. The eye test does not. His performance against Green Bay also did not.
In reality, Purdy is probably just alright. He is given the keys to the car for a tremendous offense, with a great play-caller as coach and an elite cast of weapons to command. It’s probably the easiest situation for any QB in the NFL to succeed and Purdy, most of the time, does exactly what is necessary, achieving phenomenal results in the process. He drops some dimes and has some great moments. He also has concerning moments and the offense looks much worse when the weapons aren’t at his disposal. Purdy doesn’t suck. He also shouldn’t be in consideration as a top 5 QB.
Defensively the Niners have a fearsome defensive front, EDGE Nick Bosa a superstar pass rusher who has 44.5 sacks the past three seasons. EDGE Chase Young (his OSU teammate) is a solid #2 option while DTs Javon Hargrave and Arik Armstead are fearsome passrushers in their own right. The LBs, led by 1st Team All-Pro Fred Warner, are also elite. The secondary may not be up to the same standard, but CB Charvarius Ward is also All-Pro.
They are a top 5 defense in DVOA and the #1 offense in that metric. This is a well-oiled, excellent machine that doesn’t have too many weaknesses. They have been built to win a Super Bowl and are much further into their build/life cycle than the Lions. This is San Francisco’s 4th NFC Championship Game appearance in five seasons and a number of these players were on the team that made the Super Bowl back in 2019-20. The Niners have spent extensive assets to build this team and have an older, more veteran roster of superstars. The Lions, on the other hand, are the young upstarts. San Francisco is at home, as the #1 seed. They should win this game.
But as history tells us, upsets happen. San Francisco’s defensive line, as fearsome as it has been rushing the passer, isn’t as sharp in run defense. As a team, they are 10th in YPC allowed on the ground at 4.1. The Lions, a run-heavy team that wants to pound the rock, can match up there. The other corners besides Ward, as we saw in the Green Bay game, have some vulnerabilities (especially Ambry Thomas). On the flip side, the Lions have been manufacturing turnovers extremely well in recent weeks and Brock Purdy is liable to huck up a couple interceptable balls each game. If you catch those, who knows. The Lions stop the run very well and San Francisco’s IOL has some vulnerabilities in pass protection. There aren’t a lot of cracks, but there are enough that you can envision a way for the Lions to win.
It probably involves some combination of winning field position again, red zone defense forcing field goals, and a couple turnovers to hold SF in the low 20s and then another great Goff game despite pressure, punishing success on the ground, and creativity from Ben Johnson gets the Lions narrowly past the Niners. Something like the script we saw in Week One against the Chiefs. That’s the nature of the matchup, the Lions having one script to win this game and the Niners have many.
San Francisco will probably win, because they are the team built to win the Super Bowl right now. The Lions are still in the process of building. If the Niners drop the Leos on Sunday night, it will be completely understandable. But let’s say their odds are 70% to win. Three in ten is still a pretty high probability. 30% events happen all the time in daily life. You’ve still gotta play the games and we’ve seen the Lions pull off upsets before. The Lions have a chance to win and even if they don’t, it’s still been one hell of a season.