Eight Thoughts on the Red Wings' Playoff Chase with 25 Games to Go

Takes on whether the Detroit Red Wings can hang onto their playoff spot

As the week of February 24 begins, the Detroit Red Wings hold a playoff spot in the Eastern Conference picture. Sound familiar? Indeed, it was nearly one year ago that the Red Wings were in a similar position, albeit even better situated in terms of the playoff math at the time. Most readers will remember what happened: the Red Wings added a wretched corporate sponsor to their uniforms, lost their top line center/captain for a month, and proceeded to go 3-10-2 over a 15 game span. They snapped out of the tailspin in April, but not soon enough to salvage a playoff spot.

So here we are again. After an incredible past 22 games (16-4-2) dating back to the coaching change, where Derek Lalonde was fired in favor of Todd McLellan, Red Wings fans have gone from looking up top NHL Draft prospects and draft lottery odds to scoreboard watching for the wild card chase. Detroit is firmly back in that hunt… can they finish the job this time? That’s what I will attempt to answer today, with this series of takes on the team’s performance under McLellan, positive/negative developments in the team’s play, and the playoff chase (all stats in this piece are via Natural Stat Trick unless otherwise stated):

1. My opinion of Derek Lalonde’s performance was among the lowest in the fanbase and even I didn’t see this level of turnaround coming. Let’s just put it plainly: I was calling for a coaching change before pretty much anyone else but even I didn’t think a reversal in fortune of this magnitude was possible. The change in record has obviously been dramatic, but the Red Wings are improved pretty much across the board, both in all situations and at 5v5. Much of it seems to come down to a simplified offensive approach, exemplified in McLellan’s famed “play f****** hockey” quote in the first practice he presided over (one day before this 16-4-2 run began). McLellan has emphasized shooting the puck more and playing more direct offensive hockey, seeming to undo what appears in hindsight to have been over-coaching by Lalonde.

McLellan wanted the team to get back to basics and the approach has clearly worked. Under Lalonde, the Red Wings averaged 23.43 shots for per 60 minutes at 5v5, last in the NHL, as well as 52.98 shot attempts for per 60, 3rd-worst in the league. Over the past 22 games those numbers are up to 27.09, around the middle of the league, and 56.55 (22nd). Taking an extra 4-5 shots per 60 minutes at even strength has been the catalyst for a more productive offense, elevating Detroit’s offense from the morgue it was in under Lalonde to a more respectable unit. The results they were generating offensively at 5v5 never jibed with the level of the talent on the team and obviously reflected an error in schematic philosophy, Lalonde seeming to focus so heavily on preventing dangerous chances that it neutered the 5v5 offense entirely.

McLellan has scaled it back, letting the players return to what they’re comfortable with and the team has taken off. No more beating the New York Islanders while recording 11 shots on goal, as happened in October under Lalonde. If you want evidence of the team’s wholesale change in fortune under McLellan, here’s the before/after, beginning with McLellan coaching his first practice¹:

This 22 game sample of the McLellan era is a pretty useful sample because it’s a good cross-section of the NHL. 12 of 22 games were against playoff teams, with three other games against teams in the East wild card hunt (Columbus, Montreal, Philly). The average points% of teams played in this span is fairly similar to the NHL’s median. In many ways, the above chart reflects what you would anticipate Detroit to do against the median NHL team. Against such a team, you would expect the Wings to be roughly even in 5v5 play but come out slightly ahead in chances over the full game (thanks in part to the lethal PP). More notably, you can see how the Detroit’s largest increases have come in shots (SF%) and shot attempts (CF%) at both strengths, as well as how they may have become looser defensively at 5v5 (xGA/60), but with the added benefit of drastically improving in the offensive metrics (xGF/60).

That’s perfectly acceptable and I think close to in line with their talent. Where the team was under Lalonde was unacceptable and something I noted was probably coaching related when I wrote about the Red Wings in December. I probably underestimated how bad it had gotten under Lalonde, but it was clear that there was significant underachievement. McLellan has gotten that back in order, a team that is emphasizing its strengths and riding its top players (Seider, Larkin, Raymond, Edvinsson, DeBrincat), while letting its rookies surprise and raise the ceiling.

Those metrics don’t reflect a team that should win at the clip they’ve been winning, unless they continue to shoot very well and get very good goaltending. Some of the PDO (SH%/SV%) luck will cool off, but unlike last season, when the PDO luck cools, I don’t expect the Red Wings to crash and burn. They weren’t controlling play at all last year. This year, under McLellan, they’re in much more even games. So long as your shooting/goaltending doesn’t totally desert you, the McLellan era numbers reflect a team that should be able to scratch out wins and keep pace in the wild card chase because the structure and control of play is respectable. Now we’ll talk more about why it’s respectable in the next bullets.

[DetroitHockeyNow]

2. Lucas Raymond and Dylan Larkin give the Red Wings a legitimate playoff caliber top line. Detroit’s two best forwards have played nearly the entire season together and the results have been excellent, owning 55% of the shot attempts, 51.7% of the shots, and 52.6% of the expected goals. That covers the full season, both Lalonde and McLellan, with several different wingers. There hasn’t been a moment in the 650 minutes the two have played together at 5v5 where they weren’t the top line, going against good competition, and they’ve been able to win the possession and the chance battle in their minutes.

The success that the two of them have had in the possession/chance area of the game has resulted in surging point totals. Larkin is on pace for 35 goals and 76 points, which would be a career high in the former and just short of one in the latter. Raymond is on pace for 32 goals and 59 assists for 91 points, which would be narrowly a career high in the former and would obliterate his career high in the latter. As I write this now, Raymond is a top 20 scorer in the league in both points and assists and when you factor in his 200-foot game, it’s hard to argue he’s not quickly becoming one of the best forwards in the NHL.

We saw at the 4 Nations Faceoff that Larkin and Raymond were both able to hold their own against the best in the world and I think that jibes with what we’ve seen this year. The tandem have been a good top line this season at 5v5 and have both been killer on the PP (more on that later). Yes, their line is not a Connor McDavid or Nathan MacKinnon level top line blah blah blah, I’m tired of framing discussions about Larkin in terms of what he isn’t. We just watched him play best-on-best and be extremely good. He’s genuinely a excellent NHL hockey player and Raymond is a burgeoning star. Those guys can drive a top line and go toe to toe with top players in the league and that’s a huge boost for a team pushing for the playoffs to have.

3. McLellan’s best personal decision was elevating Marco Kasper to the top line. On January 7, with the Red Wings set to face Ottawa, McLellan decided to move rookie Marco Kasper from a bottom six center position to a top line winger spot, putting Kasper next to Raymond and Larkin. At that time, the former first round pick had just two goals and seven points on the season, averaging 14:04 of ice time. He hadn’t scored a goal in seven weeks and was riding a fourteen game pointless streak.

Kasper, only 20 years old, was struggling mightily under the weight of a role that was too much for him. Center is already a difficult position to play with significant defensive responsibilities exclusive to it, even if you have good wingers. But Kasper’s wingers, players like Joe Veleno, Jonatan Berggren, Michael Rasmussen, and Tyler Motte, are not particularly good. Most of those players are checking line guys who don’t drive play and don’t produce offense. Or, in Berggren’s case, is a fellow rookie. Asking a rookie to adjust to the pace of the NHL while playing center is a lot to begin with, but asking him to do it while also being solely responsible for his line’s offensive production and play-driving was way too much to ask

Instead, McLellan took a page out of the same book the Red Wings used for Dylan Larkin back during his rookie season: playing the rookie on the wing with an established and productive center. Larkin’s rookie year saw him play largely on the wing next to the grizzled and legendary Henrik Zetterberg. Unsurprisingly, Larkin had a great rookie year, finishing with 23 goals. That got Larkin acclimated to the NHL and built up his confidence, before being asked to tackle the center job in year #2, something he figured out over the span of a couple years.

McLellan decided to do the same thing with Kasper, moving him up to play with Larkin, who is now a decent comparable to late career Zetterberg. He also gets to play with Lucas Raymond, which helps a lot. In placing Kasper there, McLellan was replacing Alex DeBrincat (who moved to the 2nd line), a former NHL All-Star, yet the results haven’t diminished at all. With Kasper on the line with Larkin/Raymond, the trio have owned over 56% of the shots, shot attempts, and expected goals, while being positive in actual goals (10-8). As I said in the previous bullet point, that is a playoff caliber NHL first line.

Kasper’s contributions have been important and voluminous, posting an 8-7-15 line in 18 games and he’s up to 15:56 per night. I think long term the Wings will want Kasper back at center, because he’s a trained center and centers are incredibly valuable, but he’s shown that he can be a highly effective offensive winger. Kasper may not have been billed as the most high skill player in the 2022 NHL Draft, but he’s shown that on the wing he has real playmaking ability. He’s made sweet passes like this one to Larkin vs. Edmonton and this one to Raymond vs. LA. Kasper’s game has always had a greasy element to it that can be showcased on the wing, driving the net, winning board battles, retrieving pucks and funneling them into dangerous areas.

Playing the wing takes the defensive and play-driving responsibilities off of Kasper, narrowing his game and building up his confidence in the process. Credit to McLellan in recognizing how to get the most out of a rookie Kasper. In the process, bumping Alex DeBrincat down to the 2nd line has bore fruits as The Cat is playing his best hockey as a Red Wing in my view, driving that 2nd line that is winning its minutes (DeBrincat with Andrew Copp and either Patrick Kane or Vlad Tarasenko… both combos are above water in shots and expected goals). I have real concern about the Red Wings’ bottom six, but with DeBrincat firing the way he is and the top line cooking, the Red Wings are now a two line team, thanks to the Kasper switch.

[Detroit News]

4. The PP will cool off, but it is legit. The Red Wings’ PP was one of the main stories of the team going into the 4 Nations break but after what we just saw this weekend, it really is the story. Detroit scored two PPGs on Saturday against Minnesota and then scored three on Sunday against Anaheim. Dating back to December 28, the Detroit PP is firing at an astonishing 39%, which definitely is not sustainable because no NHL team can sustain a clip that high for an extended period of time. But I also firmly believe that, based on what I’ve seen, Detroit has one of the NHL’s 3 or so best PPs this season. They are running scalding hot right now (the second time that’s happened under McLellan), but they have been strong on the man-advantage all year.

The Red Wings were a good team on the PP last year, but with Lucas Raymond ascending further, it’s gone to another level. Raymond is one of the NHL’s most productive PP contributors (2nd in the league in PP points with 29) and the PP is beginning to run through him. He’s making the highly deceptive sorts of passes with regularity that only elite playmakers can make. Lasers across the seam that slice the opponent open and result in A+ chances and when you put that next to Patrick Kane’s skill on the opposite side, as well as Larkin and DeBrincat in the slot and down low, you get a deadly man-advantage. The personnel is legit and they look impeccably coached, credit given to Alex Tanguay for that. Talent goes a long way but PPs also need structure and coaching with go-to plays, and the Red Wings have all of it.

Again, it’s going to come down to earth some amount, but their underlying metrics on the PP are very strong. The Red Wings’ PP creates shots, chances, and expected goals at a more efficient rate than the rest of the NHL. Across the full season, the Red Wings are 3rd in shots per 60, 5th in shot attempts for per 60, 2nd in expected goals for per 60, and 2nd in scoring chances for per 60 on the PP. Even just from an eye test standpoint, the Red Wings are riding some shooting luck but the process looks excellent. They always have a plan and zip the puck around, creating look after look. The Red Wings power play is superb and it should be a strength they draw upon the rest of the year.

5. The penalty kill/play down a man remains worrying. The story coming out of the weekend is the two blown leads, forcing OT on both Saturday/Sunday, but none of the goals allowed to blow the leads were at 5v5. On Saturday it was a 5v4 (delayed penalty at 4v4) goal and a 6v5 goal and on Sunday it was two 6v5 goals. That to me is a little different than an abstract “blown lead” because it reflects a specific problem with a facet of play. When you put it alongside a Red Wings penalty kill that has largely been dismal this season, there’s a more clear picture of what the weakness is. It isn’t so much that they “blew leads” as it is that Detroit really struggles down a man.

I harped on the penalty kill in December as a coaching area that needed to be fixed. McLellan did dismiss Bob Boughner, who was in charge of the PK under Lalonde, when he took over in order to make room for his right-hand-man Trent Yawney. They made some structural changes to the PK which you can read about in depth in this excellent piece by Sean Shapiro on his blog Shap Shots, which I think has led to limited improvement, but it’s still a concern. Since December 28 the Red Wings are still at just 73.2% on the PK, which is up from Lalonde but not ideal. They were looking stronger on the PK in the last couple weeks before the 4 Nations break but then didn’t look great short-handed vs. Minnesota on Saturday and when you factor in their problems 6v5 over the weekend, I don’t think we can say there’s been a ton of progress.

I would have to go back over the two games and look at the tape again, but at the time the issue seems to be passiveness, which was a problem of the Lalonde PK. The Wild held zone time continuously for quite some time before both of their goals and Anaheim did the same 6v5 on Sunday, cycling around the perimeter while the Red Wings backed off and tried to just block shots. I’d like to see a little more puck pressure 6v5, though obviously conceding that players get tired in those situations and there is risk. I think realistically that fixing Detroit’s play down a man in full is probably an offseason task of both personnel and coaching, when McLellan will have a full training camp to work with, but any incremental progress will be pivotal for the stretch run and is still needed.

[Tim Fuller - Imagn Images]

6. Goaltending remains very solid, but Cam Talbot is my go-to guy down the stretch. I don’t have a ton to say about Detroit’s goaltending other than that it’s fine. Cam Talbot and Alex Lyon have both been rock solid for the Wings this year, not lighting the world on fire but far from an issue. They’re good enough to steal you a game from time to time and every so often have a stinker (Lyon vs. Tampa before the break stands out), but mostly they do their job. Two solid, professional goalies and their metrics sit slightly above average on the year.

Talbot enters this week with a .905 and Lyon with a .902, while league average SV% sits at .901. Both are in the positive when it comes to goals saved above expected, with Evolving Hockey putting Talbot at +6.14 and Lyon at +7.8. I like both guys, but I feel a bit more comfortable with Talbot and he’s had more big game experience in his career, so that’s who I’d go to in the biggest games. But both guys will be needed to get through these grueling last 25 games.

7. Credit Ben Chiarot for improving, while the rest of the defense is shaky. When I wrote about the Red Wings in December, I was castigating Ben Chiarot for his performance. Indeed, he had been terrible and was dragging down whoever he played with. Few players on the team have improved more than Chiarot under McLellan compared to Lalonde, as the Chiarot/Seider pair have gone from getting caved in constantly under Lalonde to actually narrowly winning the territorial/xG battle in their minutes, while still playing elite competition. From an eye test standpoint, Chiarot looks miles better, while Seider is still his rock solid self. The change in fortune is mostly due to Chiarot’s improvement, and it’s boosted the team.

McLellan’s other interesting decision in rookie deployment was bumping Albert Johansson up to play with Simon Edvinsson, transforming Johansson from a struggling and heavily sheltered fringe 3rd pair D under Lalonde to playing 20 minutes per night in a top four capacity. The Edvinsson/Johansson pair have been a classic case of eye-test and results vs. analytics. They have generally spent more time in their own end than the opponents’ end, an issue that has accelerated recently, and are on the losing end of the shot battle, scoring chances, etc. Yet they are up 13-7 in actual goals(!) and the eye test has been very kind. The two Swedes have some chemistry, they both move pretty well, and they are capable of making plays like this one against Connor McDavid defending the rush.

Which is something of a reversal from the third pair of Justin Holl-Erik Gustafsson. Those two guys generally spend more of their shifts in the offensive zone, winning the territorial/possession battle. However, the shots they give up are exceedingly dangerous (per the underlying numbers) and the eye test is terrible, both players prone to buffoon gaffes and that has left them outscored 11-9 at 5v5.

Overall, I think the reality of these two pairs are somewhere in between. I think that Johansson and Edvinsson are probably being asked to do too much (remember, they are both rookies) and getting a little lucky, even if both are promising prospects. And Holl/Gustafsson aren’t quite as bad as it seems at times, but are problem spots the Red Wings should consider trying to upgrade on at the trade deadline (ideally for a low cost). The Red Wings don’t have a great defensive group right now, but it’s better than where it was before thanks to Ben Chiarot’s improvement and if nothing else, Edvinsson and Johansson are getting battle tested for the future by the roles they’re playing right now.

So, will the Red Wings make the playoffs?

Now is the part you’ve all been waiting for. If you’re read up to this point, you’ve been able to glean that I think that the Detroit Red Wings under Todd McLellan are a solid hockey team with a good process who should remain very compeitive down the stretch. I expect them to be in the hunt until the end again. But can they beat the competition out? Let’s take a look at the standings as we begin the week (no East teams play on Monday so this will be constant for a couple days):

The Red Wings hold the top wild card spot entering the week, but the picture is very crowded. I included seven teams in this picture, omitting Philadelphia who is a hair behind Montreal but is pretty openly selling to take themselves out of the chase. What is very interesting about the next ~10 days leading up to the trade deadline is to see which other teams in this picture choose to join the Flyers in the selling category.

I don’t see Montreal as a major threat in this chase and they seem fairly likely to sell, albeit not of a fire-sale variety. They are seven points back of Detroit, which is a lot of ground to make up and they are probably the worst of this group in terms of team quality. Their remaining schedule is easy but if they do sell off a couple pieces at the deadline, I think the Habs are probably out of it.

The Islanders are one of the most interesting teams to watch, because their team might honestly be the best competitor to the Red Wings when fully healthy. But they are starting seven points back, aren’t fully healthy (Mat Barzal is said to be out long-term), and have a major incentive to sell with a valuable trade chip in Brock Nelson. Their borderline senile GM Lou Lamoriello might be too delusional to wave the white flag, but they should do so and re-tool a bit. Will they? If they slump over the next week, that may seal their fate. If they do move Brock Nelson/Kyle Palmieri, that’s probably the end for them. If they don’t, I would be on alert for an Isles surge, if only because Ilya Sorokin can go .950 for a month and make things interesting.

Boston also has to decide their plan and seems to be tilting towards selling. They don’t have a ton to sell, unless they go the nuclear route and move Brad Marchand. I don’t see that happening, but maybe. The Bruins have played pretty awful hockey for two months now and with recent injury issues for Charlie McAvoy + the news of Hampus Lindholm being done for the year, it just seems like a bit of a lost season. They’re close enough to Detroit that you absolutely can’t rule the B’s out, but they are not a team I’m most concerned about.

Which is a long way of saying I think there are four teams in prime position to battle for two slots, Detroit, Ottawa, Columbus, and the Rangers. Ottawa has the inside track to a spot as they are probably the best team of this entire group and possess one of the NHL’s easiest remaining schedules, while the other three teams are 1st, 2nd, and 3rd in most difficult remaining schedules in the entire league. It’s on a silver platter for the Sens to take care of business and end their playoff drought, but given that this is the Ottawa Senators, I suppose they’re equally likely to slip and faceplant into the meal displayed on the silver platter.

But I do like Ottawa’s odds to finish with WC1 out of this group, which means Detroit should be most concerned about Columbus and the Rangers stealing their spot. Columbus is the miracle story of the year, emerging from the tragedy of Johnny Gaudreau’s death to go from bottom of the barrel to playoff contender. They play fun, wide-open, high-scoring games and while they aren’t particularly good, they’ve been riding a PDO wave for the last little bit. My brain tells me not to be too scared of Columbus given their remaining schedule, but there is a bit of a magical, team of destiny feel to the Jackets this season. The two games this week between Detroit and Columbus (one of which outdoors at the Horseshoe) are arguably the two biggest remaining games this year for the Wings.

And then there’s the Rangers, who have the most talent on paper out of this group. After all, they finished with the NHL’s best record last season. They dumped Jacob Trouba and Barclay Goodrow and added JT Miller and yet… they look like ass. Multiple important players have declined and the team seems to have no fight in them. Even when they win, as they did on Sunday, they look disinterested and terrible. If the Rangers decide to get up off the mat and actually play like they want to make the playoffs, I think they are favored to snatch that WC spot away from the Wings. But having watched the Rangers a fair bit recently, I don’t love their odds of doing it, because they look like a team mentally ready for the offseason. Meanwhile the Wings and Columbus are younger, hungrier teams. That may make a big difference.

In the end, I’d say it’s probably 50-50 on whether the Red Wings make the playoffs, largely because of their brutal schedule. Yes, it’s largely shared by Columbus and New York, but it is just a horrific burden for the Red Wings. Their April in particular is a murderer’s row, nine games in total, seven against playoff teams (mostly teams I’d describe as elite) and the two against non-playoff teams are both on the road. If the Red Wings survive this and make the postseason, they will absolutely have earned it.

Detroit has set themselves up in good position, holding down a spot gearing up for the stretch run, but they’re going to need to steal some points/games in order to make the cut and fending off a bunch of teams won’t be easy. Picking the field over one individual team is the more convenient bet, but I like Detroit more than almost any other team in this hunt. I don’t anticipate them getting a ton of help at the trade deadline, although some additional boost would be nice.² The guys responsible for getting this team to the postseason are mostly already on this roster and hopefully they’ve learned their lessons from last year. If nothing else, they are playing more sustainable hockey and that’s something to thank Todd McLellan for.

1. I excluded the first game McLellan coached because by all accounts he just told the team to do what they had been doing under Lalonde. Changes began the next day in his first practice, so that’s the period I’m looking at.

2. I would be interested in cheap acquisitions for 3rd pair defensive help, a depth center (especially with Copp injured), or a useful middle six winger. But not at high prices (for rentals)