Ten Midseason Thoughts About The Detroit Tigers

Takes on the Tigs halfway home

The second quarter of the 2025 MLB season is in the books and it’s time to check back in on the Detroit Tigers. I checked in with the team after the first quarter of the season in a piece on this blog, when I was grappling with the sizzling pace the team was on and what it meant. Even at that time, this looked like a playoff-bound squad with an exceptional run differential, tracking alongside some of the best teams in franchise history through 44 games.

The team’s status has been cemented over the 38 games since then, the pace of victories cooling off some but they have still posted a winning record in that time, with no pronounced cold streaks. As I write this, Detroit is tied with the Dodgers for the MLB’s best record at 51-31, with the 3rd best run differential at +94. Challenges not present in the first quarter popped up in the second, a mix of injuries and pitching struggles conjuring choppy seas. Yet the team, behind its skipper AJ Hinch, have stayed on course and now hold a gigantic lead in the AL Central at the midway point. Some has changed since mid-May, but the narrative is still the same.

As I did in the first article, I will outline 10 observations about the team at this point in the season:

1. The Detroit Tigers organization is in good hands, top to bottom. I thought about writing an article on this topic a week ago, on the three year anniversary of when I eviscerated Al Avila and Chris Ilitch in a piece about the state of the franchise back in June 2022. That was written just over a month before Avila’s firing, when the Tigers were in year ~6 of a forever rebuild with no end in sight, rolling out a listless offense in front of a barren stadium, covered by an unlistenable TV broadcast. Almost everything I wrote then I still stand by, though I probably should’ve been a little kinder in some of the language usage.

It’s undeniable the levels of despair baseball in Detroit had sank to at that time, though. And why it’s so impressive how much progress has been made by the new regime in that time. As of midnight on June 27, 2025, the Detroit Tigers have the best record in the MLB at 51-31. The West Michigan Whitecaps have the best record in the Midwest League (High-A) at 49-22. The Lakeland Tigers have the best record in the Florida State League (Single-A) at 42-28. The Erie Seawolves have the 2nd best record in the Eastern League (AA) at 47-25. The FCL Tigers have the 2nd best record in the Florida Complex League (Rookie ball) at 25-14. The Toledo Mud Hens (AAA) are the only American team in the Detroit organization not to be near the top of their standings, but still have a winning record (40-37).¹

The organization is winning at every level of consequence, boasting what was in early June (and I imagine still is) the best cumulative record for an organization in the MLB across all the levels. That is a sea change from the Dombrowski/Avila era I grew up with, where the MLB club was sometimes strong, but the minor league teams often languished. Mike Ilitch’s spending and Dombrowski’s pro scouting acumen supplied the Tigers with great MLB players when the model worked at its best, but it was not a strong organization and it chronically failed to develop players.

Right now, the Detroit Tigers as an organization are unequivocally the healthiest they have ever been in the 21st century.² Top to bottom they have become a well oiled machine, a vision instilled from the top by Scott Harris as President but shared by everyone else. That includes AJ Hinch and Chris Fetter on the pro coaching staff, but also scouting experts like Rob Meltzer and Mark Conner, player development maestro Ryan Garko, and pitching gurus Robin Lund and Juan Nieves. They’ve even gone from a bottom rung TV announcing team in the MLB to maybe the best. What a glow up.

Working in harmony, this group has an MLB team on pace for 100 wins, with a mostly young and homegrown roster, and still has one of the MLB’s best farm systems behind it. More postseason success (and more consistent duration of success) will be needed for the Tigers to truly join the Dodgers and Astros as model franchises in the MLB but goddamn I’d be lying if I claimed it didn’t feel like it’s heading that way. This is the one thing I have wanted in baseball my whole life, for the Tigers to be a truly Smart™ organization that is sustainably good and does things the right way, like the best teams do. Watching this franchise transform has been a dream come true.

[Detroit Free Press]

2. Tarik Skubal and Riley Greene are good at baseball. Skubal and Greene didn’t feature much in my last article because they were both known quantities and hadn’t been quite up to their lofty standards at that point. Over the second quarter, they have reminded everyone why they are both likely to start the All-Star Game for the American League. Skubal’s last two against Pittsburgh and the A’s have been worse than his norm but prior to that Skubal went on an 11 game run in which he threw 72.2 innings with 95 strikeouts and three walks(!!!) in that span. Lmao. He’s got more competition this year for the AL Cy Young, but I still like him to edge out Garrett Crochet, Max Fried, and Hunter Brown across the full season and go back-to-back.

As for Riley, his June has been the best month for a Tigers hitter since peak Miggy (no biggie). The darndest thing about Greene this season is that he went in a slump that was about as bad as you will ever see a hitter look at the MLB level (1/32 with 19 Ks!!!), yet overall the first half of this season is the best statistical 80 game stretch of Riley Greene’s career. He’s hitting close to .300 with a near-.900 OPS and is on pace to shatter career highs in HR (on pace for ~35) and RBI (on pace to exceed 120). Both Fangraphs and Baseball Reference have Greene tracking towards a 5.5 or 6.0 WAR season, legitimately elite production. In June Greene has played like an MVP contender.

There have been points in the season where Kerry Carpenter or Gleyber Torres or Spencer Torkelson have performed better at the plate than Greene. Don’t get fooled, Greene has always been Detroit’s best hitter, and it’s been that way since 2023. At age 24, he is the Tigers’ franchise player and while everyone is focused on Skubal contract discussion, it’s Greene who is the most important for the Tigers to get signed long-term because of how much younger he is. Yeah he strikes out too much and yeah he runs like he’s stepping on hot coals, but the dude is a great hitter and will be in All-Star Games for years to come.

[Ed Zurga/Getty Images]

3. Wenceel Pérez has quickly risen up my list of favorite Tigers. To be honest, I wasn’t super high on Wenceel coming into the season. I thought he played with energy when the Tigers called him up last season but outside of a strong playoffs, he didn’t wow me in any way. Pérez was a below average hitter as a rookie and didn’t grade out as an incredible fielder either. He also was never considered a top prospect and so I exited 2024 believing perhaps he could be a utility player in the long run but not much more than that. When Wenceel went down with injury during spring training, it was a bummer in the sense that it meant Ryan Kreidler made the Opening Day roster but I didn’t think it was going to materially impact the Tigers’ 2025 team.

Boy was I wrong! Pérez has only played a shade over 20 games, but he has been outstanding in that span. His offense has been far above what it was last season, displaying newfound power and has contributed from both sides of the plate as a switch hitter. In under 100 plate appearances, Pérez has already bashed six 2Bs, two 3Bs, and six HRs(!!). Even on nights where the Tigers are struggling offensively, like Wednesday vs. the A’s, Pérez is having good ABs (he drilled a triple in that game).

The craziest thing is the underlying numbers don’t suggest that Wenceel is getting lucky right now. Baseball Savant has his expected OPS (xwOBA + xSLG) as .933, only a bit below his current OPS of .983. Wenceel’s player card shows him in the 90th+ percentile in barrel%, LA sweet spot%, xwOBA, xBA, and xSLG, while rating highly in squared-up% and average exit velocity. He’s been exceptional at the plate and right now is one of Detroit’s best hitters, someone you have to have in the lineup nightly.

The defense still isn’t grading out as anything special, although Tuesday’s game with the two outfield assists helps. It’s worth remembering that Pérez was an infielder until recently, when he learned to play the OF to have a better shot at the bigs. So, there’s a possibility that Wenceel has room to grow as a fielder. Either way, it’s not like he’s a trainwreck in right and so long as he’s hitting like that, he will be in the lineup regularly. As for me, I’ve always had a bit of a soft spot for switch hitters³ and Wenceel’s personality brings good vibes to the lineup, so yeah, he’s now one of my Tigers.

[Nick Cammett/Diamond Images]

4. Kerry Carpenter… oof. Colt Keith… yay. Kerry Carpenter has been in a seismic slump for the last month or so, breaking out occasionally to pop a home run but otherwise being petty useless. I don’t want to be mean to the guy but he’s a bat-first player and the bat has provided nothing during this period. The problem is fairly obvious to anyone who has been closely watching Carpenter: his lack of plate discipline. Carpenter has been expanding like crazy during this period, routinely swinging at pitches out of the zone.

When that is going on, pitchers don’t have to respect you. If they know they can throw it high and get you to swing, they don’t feel pressured falling behind in the count. Carpenter has also been over-aggressive in addition to expanding the zone, swinging too often. There have been too many at bats where I’m yelling at the television, “TAKE A PITCH!” He seems rushed and too excited to swing the bat, when a bit more patience would go a long way. The issue with Carpenter’s hamstrings may be part of the story, but he’s seemed like a guy for a couple weeks now that needs a week off to totally reset. Get back to basics, focus on protecting the zone first and foremost.

Until Carpenter has his head screwed back on, I want to see more Colt Keith in the lineup. At the start of the year it was Keith who looked overwhelmed, to the point that I was ready to see him sent back to Toledo for a reset of his own. He was drawing walks but making little solid contact, and showing no power at all. But since the end of April Keith has hit his stride, with a >.800 OPS over his past 45 games, 6 HR in that span. I am still looking for a bit more power, but the contact is much more solid and the underlyings look good for the full season (xwOBA of .368 and xSLG of .485).

I paired Keith and Carpenter together in this bullet point in part because it has felt like AJ Hinch has been a bit too slow to cut down Carpenter’s ABs and boost Keith’s. Even recently Keith has still been relegated to a platoon role, while Carpenter was making regular starts, even though the data has been showing one lefty should be getting more of the opportunities than the other. It feels time for Keith to get more opportunities that he’s rightfully earned with his strong play and for Carpenter to get a bit of seemingly needed time off.

5. Still a big fan of the Tigers’ middle infield. I guess “still” is not the right phrasing considering Javier Báez was playing centerfield back in May. However, I remain a huge fan of what Javy has been this season at any position, and him playing short next to Gleyber Torres is the optimal alignment for this team. Both players have good odds to be playing in the All-Star Game and both would deserve that recognition the way they have played. On a team that is one of the least experienced in the MLB, the two veterans have brought reliable performance to the cohort of position players.

I gave both players extended shoutouts in my last piece and not much has changed since then, but they’ve sustained their performances. Gleyber continues to put together excellent ABs, drawing walks, rarely striking out, and pounding the ball. It feels like he gets on every night and his defense hasn’t been terrible in my eyes. Báez went through a long slump after my last pice but then has heated back up over the past few weeks. His total stats remain well above average as a hitter, while playing his usually electric defense. Both players have been hugely valuable for the Tigers and it’s been a joy to watch these two professionals go to work.

[Brandon Sloter/Getty Images]

6. Dillon Dingler is having the best catcher season for the Tigers since… 2011 Alex Avila? It’s been a long time since the Tigers have had a catcher playing as well as Dillon Dingler is. After the Silver Slugger peak in 2011, Avila was generally average to below average. That was followed by James McCann who wore the same shoes, and then Jake Rogers followed that, also of the same caliber. They were below average hitters with some power (not a ton) and decent defense. Fine.

This Dillon Dingler season has broken that mold by being legitimately awesome. Despite almost never walking, Dingler has been a solid hitter, a bit above average for all positions and well above average for a catcher. That would be nice on its own, but Dingler’s elite defense alongside the offense is why he’s one of the best catchers in the MLB this season. Dingler’s pitch framing metrics are near the top of the league and his arm grades out well too, both statistically and in the eye test. I’m still thinking about that throw he made against the Cubs.

I don’t know if he’ll make the All Star Game but he definitely deserves to in the abstract. It will be tough math because the AL includes Cal Raleigh having the single greatest offensive season for a catcher in MLB history and Alejandro Kirk, who has been better than Dingler offensively and awesome defensively. That doesn’t denigrate what Dingler has done, since he’s still probably a top five catcher in the MLB this season.⁴ It’s been a long time since the Tigers could say that about a catcher on their roster, which is great for Dingler and a feather in the cap of the Tigers’ player development system which has turned Dingler into an impactful MLBer.

7. The Tigers have shouldered legitimate adversity in the starting rotation and may need help. Since the last time I wrote about the Tigers, the following developments have wracked their rotation… 1.) Reese Olson went down with injury during his next start and still hasn’t returned, 2.) Jackson Jobe was lost for the season with Tommy John, 3.) Jack Flaherty’s painful struggles returned in June, and 4.) Alex Cobb still has not pitched in the MLB. For a team with a record as good as Detroit, that’s quite a bit of adversity in the starting rotation.

When you remember that Casey Mize had a short stint on the IL earlier in the season, the Tigers have had 3/5 of their Opening Day rotation already spend time on the IL. The only two healthy pitchers have been Skubal and Flaherty, and the latter of which has one of the highest ERAs of qualified starters in the AL. Having to rely on the likes of Keider Montero, a rusty Sawyer Gipson-Long, bullpen days, and the erratic Flaherty to fill three out of every five games explains why the Tigers have been treading water in June, rather than ripping off wins at a sizzling clip.

As we approach July, the possibility that the team may need SP help at the deadline is becoming more real to me. Skubal is an ace, Mize is a decent middle to back-end guy, and I’m a big Olson fan. But both Olson and Mize have durability concerns and right now I don’t trust Flaherty in a playoff series. I don’t have any belief that Cobb will be available at all this season, and I do not want to see Keider Montero as a playoff starter. SGL is not proven enough either. I don’t think the Tigers need to spend premium assets to get an ace but getting someone to help out in the back-end is a possibility. Each time I have to watch Flaherty get hammered, the more I wonder if this is actually a bigger need than the third base bat we’ve been talking about…

[Harry How/Getty Images]

8. I have some concerns about the bullpen. The past few weeks have seen Detroit’s bullpen take a beating, as usually reputable pillars like Tyler Holton and Brennan Hanifee have been mired in funks. Brant Hurter’s last few appearances have also been ugly, though he was insanely good for a long stretch before that, so I trust Hurter to get it back. Beau Brieske veered off the road entirely and is back in Toledo, while John Brebbia has been DFA’d as he deserved to be. All of this has seriously damaged the Tigers’ bullpen depth and make the pen the #1 need at the trade deadline to me.

Presently there are only a few relievers that I trust. Will Vest and Tommy Kahnle, absolutely. Chase Lee has been solid as a middle relief option stashed towards the end of your bullpen. When Hurter has his mojo, he is one of the team’s best. After that, it’s a giant question mark. Hurter and Hanifee aren’t going anywhere, I don’t think, but it’s incumbent on Chris Fetter and the rest of the pitching staff to right the ship here. That still leaves two spots where lots of help is needed.⁵ Alex Lange’s pending return may help, but I still think Detroit needs to acquire at least two bullpen arms in July IF they are serious about a deep October run.

Many have focused on the Tigers needing to acquire a high strikeout, back-end arm. I agree with that. Getting one more high leverage Dude is a must, as the lack of swing-and-miss arms remains an issue and one they should’ve addressed in the offseason by signing a Kirby Yates or an Aroldis Chapman rather than the Brebbia experiment. That acquisition + Kahnle + Vest is going to be your 7/8/9 for the playoffs. But they also need one more arm, possibly from the left side, to help take those middle innings. I don’t think Detroit’s bullpen is as bad as it has been in the past few weeks, but there are clear vulnerabilities and trade help is definitely needed.

9. I am not concerned about the division at all. The Tigers didn’t didn’t excel in the second quarter of the season, but their lead in the division has widened considerably since Memorial Day. How? Everyone else has fallen like a stone. Cleveland has slipped a bit (11-17 in their last 18), while Kansas City (13-25 in last 38) and Minnesota (10-20 in last 30) have self-immolated. As I publish this article, the Tigers now have the largest divisional lead in baseball, 9.5 games up on Cleveland, 11.5 on Minnesota, and 12.5 on KC. Though there is still so much time to go in the season, it’s difficult to see the Tigers getting jumped unless they go barreling off the tracks into the abyss.

I don’t think the Guardians are a terrible team, but they aren’t great. They feel like the sort of team that will finish in the 85 win range at the moment, with enough good players (JRam, Kwan, Grant Williams, the bullpen) to scratch out a winning season but too many issues (bottom half of the lineup, back-half of the rotation) to do much better than that. Minnesota has plenty of talent but their vibes remain atrocious and the Pablo Lopez injury is killer. I expect them to sell at the deadline. Kansas City has a pretty good pitching staff but cannot hit at all. Jac Caglianone alone can’t fix a lineup with so many holes in it and I also lean to thinking the Royals will sell on August 1.

So long as the Tigers take care of their business, winning a bit more than they lose in the second half (43-37 would leave them with 94 wins), it would require someone else to go on a tremendous heater (54-29 in Cleveland’s case) to jump them. Really hard to see that happening right now. Nothing is ever set in stone, but I love where the Tigers sit in the Central and that gives them some comfortability. They don’t need to make any panic moves, no need to rush into any trades. They can take this thing down to the deadline and look at where they sit.

[Robin Buckson/Detroit News]

10. I still haven’t made up my mind on the strategy I want to see at the trade deadline. The potential needs are becoming clearer to me as each passing week of Tigers games goes by. This team certainly needs help in the bullpen, as I discussed earlier. Detroit also has long seemed like a team that could use a 3B or a RH power bat (or both in the same player). As I noted, starting pitching help could be a need too. How the next few weeks unfold will determine how I ultimately feel about the needs at the deadline, but the broad sketch is clear in my head (I will do a deadline preview article in mid-July).

How aggressively I want the Tigers to address those needs is the question where I’m less sure of the answer. Coming into the season, I did not think this roster was ready to seriously contend for the World Series. My focus was more on following up 2024 with another winning season and making the postseason in some form. I did not view this as a peak roster year or one where chips would be pushed in aggressively at the deadline. The first three months of this season has been an exercise in resetting expectations and I still don’t know how far I’ve come in that.

The American League is as weak and wide open as anticipated. The Astros are red hot recently and have awesome pitching, but I don’t see them as some super-team. The Yankees are good but have holes. Tampa Bay has emerged as a really solid squad as well. I don’t know if any of these teams are as good as Philadelphia or the Dodgers can be at full strength, though. The Tigers are right at the top of the AL and if the playoffs started today, they would have the #1 seed and arguably the best odds to represent the AL in the World Series. For a franchise with four World Series appearances since Eisenhower was President, I don’t think you can ever dismiss how huge of an accomplishment it is to win the pennant and yeah, there is a path there for this group to do so.

At the same time, I also don’t know how aggressive to go in shipping out prospects. The Tigers have a really exciting pool of young talent headlined by Kevin McGonigle, Max Clark, and Josue Briceño (as well as the injured Brice Rainer) and I have been salivating about the possibility of a team in a few years’ time that has some of these players on the team alongside Greene, Keith, Wenceel, Dingler, Tork, etc. I would not want to part with those four prospects unless I was getting a core piece with years of control. Beyond those prospects, I am becoming more open to the idea of moving a Jaden Hamm or a Max Anderson or a Hao-Yu Lee to get win now help. If you are a strong organization, which the Tigers are becoming, you can always replenish your farm system with new draft picks.

The next three weeks or so are when I will decide how aggressive I’d like the front office to be. I also have a hunch that they are probably not entirely sure of the path yet either. It feels like the franchise is ahead of the schedule you would’ve expected when Scott Harris was hired in the fall of September 2022, having gone from rebuilding to true contention quickly. That’s okay, but it also means some recalibration of the approach is necessary. How the front office wrangles that will be fascinating.

1. One set of affiliated teams are below .500, the DSL Tigers of the Dominican Summer League. I give you respect if that matters to you

2. Another shorthand for (almost) my lifetime. Not completely my lifetime, since I did live in the 20th century. Take that, 2000 babies.

3. Victor Martinez was goated

4. Will Smith and Carson Kelly have been better in the NL alongside Kirk and Raleigh in the AL

5. Would be nice to have a healthy and electric Jason Foley right about now…